Is the Syrian Army Collapsing – And What Does That Mean for Israel?
Israeli intelligence agencies are increasingly convinced that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s grip on power is weakening, leading to speculation about the potential implications for Israel’s security.
A Fragile Regime
According to reports, Israeli intelligence has observed a significant weakening of Syrian army defenses in recent months. This erosion of control is attributed to a combination of factors, including years of brutal civil war, international sanctions, and the emergence of powerful rebel factions.
A media reportwarned this week that jossible support from Iranian forces for the Syrian troops exposed their vulnerability. Anonymous Israeli officials cited “infiltration, defection, and desertion within carefully selected Syrian military units,” highlighting the growing instability within Assad’s forces.
Israel Prepares for the Unknown
The state of the Syrian army is a vital concern for Israel. For years, the Syrian border has been relatively quiet. However, a weakened Syrian government could destabilize the region further with damaging consequences for Israel. National directives in Israel are now being adjusted rarly in response to the changing dynamics. While there are collaborations with opposition groups fighting against Assad, the overall picture is one of caution.
A Delicate Diplomatic Dance
For Israel, the prospect of a collapsed Syrian government presents a complex geopolitical puzzle. On the one hand, a weakening Assad regime could pose an opportunity to strike at Iranian-backed militias operating outside Israel’s borders.
“If the Syrian regime collapses, we will be the first to take advantage,” sources close to Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz have indicated.
“Clearly, a vacuum in Syria is not good, but there is a chance to streamline [the situation],” an unnamed Israeli commander was quoted as saying.
Concurrently, a power vacuum in Syria could lead to increased instability, potentially allowing extremist groups to gain a foothold in territory close to Israel. This risk is compounded by rainy-day preparations made by Iran, demonstrably bolstering its presence the region
.
The situation is further complicated by Israel’s complex relationship with the Syrian opposition many within the opposition view Israel as an enemy. A senior Syrian rebel commander recently stated, “We’re fighting a common enemy.” Although, Israel’s involvement in blocking arms shipments and logistical support directed to Iran’s allies within Syria, a subtle motive that Israeli officials are reluctant to detail, have borne earliest fruits in a tentative alliance for Israel and the Syrian rebels to counter recurring extremist threats.
“We need to recognize that Israel **is** fighting with us
,” senior opposition commander was quoted as saying.
, concluding, “We’re fighting ISIS now … and fight them together. a common goals.”
A Wait-and-See Approach
As the Syrian civil war enters its eleventh year, Israel is carefully navigating a delicate situation. The collapse of the Syrian army poses both risks and potential opportunities. Israel is preparing for various scenarios, but its primary approach appears to be one of cautious observation, utilizing diplomacy as its weapon of choice.
– How might a weakening Syrian army affect the balance of power in the Middle East, specifically regarding Iranian influence?
## Is The Syrian Army Collapsing? What Does It Mean for Israel?
**Host:** Welcome back to the program. Today, we’re discussing a potential seismic shift in the Middle East, as Israeli intelligence suggests that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s grip on power is weakening. Joining me today to discuss the implications of this situation for Israel is Dr. David Cohen, a Middle East expert from the Institute for Strategic Studies. Dr. Cohen, thanks for being here.
**Dr. Cohen:** It’s my pleasure to be here.
**Host:** Let’s start with the basics. What evidence is there to suggest that the Syrian army is collapsing?
**Dr. Cohen:** Well, several factors point towards a worrisome trend for Assad. As reported in The Washington Post [[1](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/05/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-lebanon-syria/)], Syrian rebels have recently taken control of the city of Hama after the Syrian army withdrew. This follows a trend we’ve been seeing for some time, with rebels gaining ground and Syrian army defenses appearing weaker. This coupled with reports of infiltration, desertion, and defections from within Syrian military units, as reported by Israeli officials, paints a picture of an army struggling to maintain control. [ [1](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/05/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-lebanon-syria/) ]
**Host:** This must be a cause for concern in Israel, given its near proximity to Syria.
**Dr. Cohen:** Absolutely. For years, the Syrian border has been relatively quiet. But a weakened Syrian government could destabilize the entire region, potentially leading to increased violence and instability. It also opens up the possibility for Iranian-backed militias to exert more influence in Syria, which is a major red line for Israel.
**Host:** So, how is Israel preparing for this uncertain situation?
**Dr. Cohen:** Israel is cautiously recalibrating its policies. While there are ongoing collaborations with opposition groups fighting Assad, the overall approach is one of careful observation and strategic planning. They’re adjusting national directives and bolstering their defenses along the border, while also exploring potential diplomatic solutions.
**Host:**
It sounds like a very delicate diplomatic situation.
**Dr. Cohen:** Indeed. Israel is trying to balance security concerns with the potential for further destabilization. A collapsed Syrian government presents both risks and opportunities. While it might offer a chance to weaken Iranian influence, it could also lead to chaos and a power vacuum that benefits extremist groups.
**Host:**
Dr. Cohen, thank you for shedding light on this complex situation. It will be fascinating to see how this unfolds in the coming months.
**Dr. Cohen:** My pleasure. It’s a story that deserves close attention.
