2023-10-17 14:01:00
Experts agree that the Israel war increases the risk of terrorist attacks in Europe. However, Switzerland is less at risk than other countries.
Belgian emergency services at the site where the shooter of the football game on Tuesday was neutralized. – keystone
the essentials in brief
The war in Israel increases the risk of terrorist attacks in Europe, experts warn. Larger cities in France, Great Britain and Germany are particularly at risk. Attacks are likely to come primarily from perpetrators acting alone.
With the attack on football fans in Belgium, Europe is once once more shaken by an Islamist-motivated attack. There was already a knife attack at a French school on Friday.
Experts see a direct connection with the war in Israel: “Unfortunately, there is a high probability that the threat of terrorism will now increase throughout Europe,” says security expert Nicolas Stockhammer. “In general, the worsening Middle East conflict represents a fueling factor for the terrorist threat.”
Violence researcher Dirk Baier explains: “Especially in countries where integration deficits exist, the basis for the radicalization of individual Muslims towards terror has long been laid. These people are essentially activated by Hamas’ attacks on Israel and the subsequent military conflicts.”
Israel war inspires lone perpetrators
The situation is comparable to the war in Syria, when the terrorist militia IS also targeted Europe with attacks. Back then, fanatics were willing to sacrifice themselves for the vision of an Islamic state. “The current vision is to torpedo the understanding between Arab countries and Israel or to destroy Israel entirely,” said Baier.
However, both experts believe that the war in Israel will result in individual actions rather than large-scale planned attacks by an organization. “I assume that we are more likely to see violence from individuals. This is because the police and intelligence services are now monitoring the groups much more closely and exchanging information with one another.”
And Stockhammer says: “It cannot be ruled out that so-called copy cat attacks (German: imitation attacks) might take place by free riders, i.e. radicalized individuals and smaller cells.”
Attacks are more likely in other countries than in Switzerland
The main targets for this are primarily larger European metropolises such as Brussels, Paris, London or Berlin. That’s where the attention is highest.
“However, jihadists have also repeatedly struck in smaller cities such as Würzburg (D), Ansbach (D) and Magnanville (F).” The perpetrator’s local connection is often crucial, he warns.
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The Swiss intelligence service NBD also believes that other places in Europe are at greater risk because of the Israel war. “The most plausible terrorist scenario for Switzerland is currently a jihadist act of violence,” it said when asked.
It is most likely that an individual is acting. However, there is currently no evidence of concrete attack planning.
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