Israel, the invasion of Lebanon is imminent. “Large-scale war inevitable”, analysts say –

Israel has opened a window of opportunity for a land invasion of Lebanon that many in the security apparatus have been asking for for some time, according to what was foreseen in a plan developed years ago, almost ten years ago, according to what the Washington Post writes quoting former officers and analysts. «A large-scale conflict appears increasingly inevitable as the months since 7 October last year pass. With Hamas cornered in Gaza, Israel’s plan is starting to be implemented,” writes the American newspaper. «The plan has been developed and revised by the military for years. Every time we got close to fielding, there were constraints. But now everything is back. The question is what comes next?,” explained Miri Eisin, a former military intelligence official familiar with the developments.

The approximately 1,500 targets hit in the Israeli raids in Lebanon in recent days are part of detailed war scenarios meticulously planned over time, Eisin highlights. “Last October 7th, Hamas did what everyone expected from Hezbollah,” he underlined. The implementation of the plans began a few days later on October 7, he said. Then, it was Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who backed down, fearing an overextension of the IDF. Netanyahu was not in favor of an all-out confrontation with Hezbollah, fearing that he would have to fight on two fronts and end up mired in another costly and inconclusive war in Lebanon. Risks that remain even now, but acting now offers political advantages: more time for the prime minister to rebuild his damaged reputation, delay a possible commission of inquiry into the aftermath of 7 October and divert public attention from the exhausting war in Gaza and the conditions of the hostages remaining in the Strip.

Israel also believes that Hezbollah and the Iran that supports it have no desire for an all-out war, emphasizes Yossi Kuperwasser, former director of the Israel Defense Forces’ research center. «We were the first to want the escalation and this worked to our advantage. We have entered a new phase, violating the rules”, he added, referring to the routine skirmishes on the border between Israel and Lebanon that have been underway since October 7. Things took on a new rhythm at the end of July, with the assassination by Israel of Fuad Shukr, an operation that triggered, as Eisin says, the countdown to war. Attacks on pagers and walkie-talkies have picked up the pace.