Hezbollah has refused to move its forces back from the Litani River, about 19 miles to the north, as required by the 2006 UN/SA Resolution 1701, which states that any forces other than UN peacekeepers or the regular Lebanese army must be moved north. Israel decided to put military pressure on Hezbollah, trying to force it to repatriate the displaced people to Northern Israel.
Here are the steps Israel has taken in the past twelve days:
First, it modified the goals of the ongoing war to include the return of civilians to their homes in Israel. This was a government action to bring the impending military and covert operations conducted by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Mossad secret service in Lebanon into the war, and to allocate resources accordingly.
Second, Israel launched a sabotage operation against Hezbollah leaders and high-ranking military personnel by attacking electronic devices.
Third, Israel launched a targeted strike in Beirut on September 20, hitting almost all of the leadership of Hezbollah’s Radwan unit during a secret meeting. The Radwan unit is Hezbollah’s special operations forces.
Fourth, Israel made preparations for a massive attack against Hezbollah and carried out pre-emptive strikes on September 21 against rocket and missile launchers and storage sites in Lebanon.
Fifth, Israel launched a massive aerial bombardment campaign, targeting the remaining stockpiles, warehouses and launchers in South Lebanon. Israel’s goal is to systematically degrade Hezbollah’s missile stockpile, which was estimated to be between 120,000 and 150,000 at the start of the war. This is to prevent Hezbollah from breaching Israel’s “Iron Dome” with significantly larger barrages of rockets and missiles.
The duration of the Third Lebanon War will largely depend on how quickly Hezbollah comes to the negotiating table. Israel’s sabotage campaign, pre-emptive strikes and airstrikes against rocket launchers and military depots appear to have taken Hezbollah by surprise. The organization has yet to respond substantively. By creating this disruption, Israel has demonstrated its ability to infiltrate and gather operational intelligence on Hezbollah.
What comes next will depend on Hezbollah. So far Israel has largely left Beirut out, but shelling of Hezbollah targets there and elsewhere in the country could follow if Hezbollah refuses to budge on moving north of the Litani River. If this is not achieved, Israel will likely be forced to launch a ground invasion of South Lebanon to push back Hezbollah. This has not happened in almost twenty years. A ground invasion of South Lebanon will be required if the Israeli military is unable to destroy Hezbollah positions, weapons caches and launch sites in the area between the border and the Litani River. This will include armored units, artillery, infantry and special forces, which will be deployed in the area, conducting raids and targeting Hezbollah positions.
Israel would prefer to avoid a ground invasion, given the risk and casualties to ground forces. But if it deems a ground invasion necessary, it may seek to “soften” the battlefield as much as possible with aerial bombardment, as it did in Gaza, before deploying ground forces. Again, this will depend on whether Hezbollah voluntarily withdraws north of the river and whether Israel decides it can accomplish its mission from the air alone. The Second Lebanon War lasted 34 days in 2006. The length of the Third War will depend on how quickly Hezbollah comes to the table.
Questions about Tehran’s attitude
Another important question is: What will Iran do? Tehran may, for example, push for a quick end to the war to save Hezbollah, as it does not want to lose its biggest proxy in the region. Hezbollah would play a key role in retaliating if Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan, a major issue still simmering against the backdrop of an increasingly volatile regional conflict.
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