The Middle East is preparing for new tremors. And, in the last two days, new warning signals showing that the earthquake is imminent have lit up: Paris asking its citizens to leave Iran as soon as possible. London, Washington and Stockholm doing the same with their fellow citizens in Lebanon. Air France extending the suspension of its flights to the country of the Cedars while Spanish companies are doing the same for those to Israel. And the United States strengthening its military presence in the Middle East.
Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Lebanon soon in the eye of the storm?
The pieces of the escalation puzzle are in place and the question now is not whether Iran and its regional allies will launch attacks on Israel but when, where and, most importantly, how. The regime cannot avoid responding to what happened on Wednesday.”says David Rigoulet-Roze. The associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris) is obviously referring to the elimination, admittedly not claimed by Israel, of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. It was a double humiliation for the Islamic Republic: not only was the political leader of Hamas killed in a building of the Revolutionary Guards supposed to be ultra-secure, but this assassination also took place a few hours after the inauguration of the new president, Massoud Pezeshkian. It also came after another elimination, this time assumed by Israel: that, in Beirut, of Fouad Chokr, a senior official of Hezbollah, a movement friendly to the Shiite power.
The Iranian response, decided by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself, should therefore be commensurate with the affronts suffered. The most optimistic will be able to say that the current period recalls that of April, when the mullahs responded to the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus by the Israeli air force. The Israeli response and counter-reply were ultimately measured. Despite everything, this moment marked an upheaval in the rules that governed the confrontation between Tel Aviv and its enemies in the region. The Iranians felt at the time that there had been a change in the equation, a strategic rupture, underlines David Rigoulet-RozeThey could not just ask their allies to intervene as they usually do, they had to do it themselves. »
Netanyahu’s Red Line
It should be the same this time. With, no doubt, the crossing of a new
notch in intensity. The response should be multidimensional, coordinated, severe, as the Revolutionary Guards assured yesterday in a statement. Difficult days are to be expected “, has already warned Benjamin Netanyahu. In addition to the Iranian forces, they could therefore mobilize Tehran’s “proxies” such as the Yemeni Houthis and the Lebanese Hezbollah. Hamas has also sworn to take revenge, but the ten months of war in Gaza have considerably weakened it.
Despite everything, Western chancelleries believe for the moment that the parties should avoid a general conflagration. The preferred scenario would be a sort of repeat of April, but more muscular. The risk of miscalculations still exists, such as strikes on Israeli civilian populations. This is the absolute red line for Netanyahu, says David Rigoulet-Roze. This could mean total war. » The Iranians are far from having closed the door on this possibility. On Friday, one of their representatives at the UN explained that Hezbollah, in order to avenge Haniyeh’s death, could go beyond simple strikes on military targets.
Nevertheless. Neither side has any real interest in the conflagration, especially not the Shiite regime. Tehran’s priority remains its nuclear program, which is not far from being completed. A major confrontation with Tel Aviv could compromise it.
And then the threat of American intervention weighs on the Islamic Republic. Whatever happens, Washington will remain in solidarity with the Hebrew state. By deploying several US Navy ships in the Persian Gulf and also off the coast of Lebanon in recent days, the White House has sent a message to this effect. The Iranians have undoubtedly understood this very well.