Although it has been clear for a long time that V. Putin intends to continue his rule following the end of 2024. for the “term”, such questions were put aside until the beginning of December. December 8 V. Putin took part in the Hero of Russia ceremony. Of course, it was very fitting that it was one “hero” who, in the form of a plea, asked a question regarding the continuity of V. Putin’s activities. By that time, the “election days” had already been set, and regarding three months before that was a good time to announce that you would stay in power.
There is no doubt that until December 8 a large part of the spectacle called “presidential elections in Russia” had already taken place. True, there are no alternative candidates, and support for V. Putin remains quite high. One of the reasons is the lack of alternatives. Past practice shows that “alternatives” or individual entrepreneurs who have no hope of winning ran once morest the government.
Russia’s aggressive war has changed the situation somewhat, for example by exposing extremists who were previously hidden or suppressed. The most famous of them is Igor Girkin, who repeatedly participated in Russia’s public and shadow wars. It was in 2014. the “defense minister” of the puppet state created in the occupied Donetsk region. The authorities needed him before, but in February he was imprisoned for criticizing V. Putin. It is possible that he was previously held at large to control patriotic feelings or target extremists.
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s “adventure” in midsummer was one of the reasons for the change in attitude towards him – there are enough confused people in Russia to try something like that. I.Girkin announced his intention to raise his candidacy, but it is not clear how he intends to get past the Russian “election commission”.
Someone is used as an “alternative”
Today it is known that one candidate who tried to register has already been removed. Ela Pamfilova, the head of the Russian Electoral Commission, announced that Ekaterina Duntsova will not be registered in the elections “due to document deficiencies”. She is a local politician from Rzhev (population 50,000) who also worked as a TV journalist.
As soon as J. Duncova submitted the request, two-fold speculations poured in. The first said that the Kremlin is trying to present J. Duncov as an alternative to V. Putin. The second camp was convinced that she would not be allowed to participate and that a way would be found later to punish her so that others would not even think of doing anything themselves.
As an alternative, its introduction seems unlikely, but not impossible, and in this respect, the tentative decision to remove it is not a complete answer either, says Postimees. She was a very little-known person in Russia who is now gaining fame. The ban on candidacy, in turn, increased it, and J. Duncova has already announced her intention to challenge the election commission’s decision in court.
At the first stage, the court found that she was not a suitable candidate. If the court somehow allows to “candidate”, it will already be a real alternative candidate and will allow to demonstrate the functioning of the Russian legal system. This is essential for the internal audience, but of course also for the external world, as it allows you to build trust.
IMAGO/Scanpix/Russian nationalist Igor Girkin-Strelkov
Someone will certainly be offered as an “alternative”, but apparently it won’t be either I.Girkin or J.Duncova, because the risk of ambiguity is too high. I.Girkinas and the extremists in his sphere of influence can easily become uncontrollable. However, in the case of J. Duncova, one of the reasons is probably the strong footprint of Belarus. If J. Duntsova succeeds in something similar to what Svetlana Cichanouskaia managed to do during the “elections” in Belarus, the Kremlin will have problems. Both elections are a farce, but it proved dangerous for the Minsk regime. Why take the risk?
The West probably hoped that someone like A.Navalna would win, but he is nowhere to be seen. Leaders who might be considered somehow more democratic were imprisoned, killed or left Russia. It must be assumed that external suitability means nothing, and it is not at all clear that A. Navalny’s preparation would be successful, even if it were carried out in good faith. It doesn’t seem that A. Navalnas has won the hearts of Russians, says the Estonian newspaper.
Non-recognition of Putin?
Reuters/Scanpix/Russian President Vladimir Putin
Looking at current events, it is clear that Putin will retain power and the results will be rigged. In this case, is the West ready not to recognize its legitimacy? Even if the events in Belarus do not repeat themselves and people do not take to the streets? Even if no other leader emerges, as in Belarus, where S. Cichanouskaja was considered the final winner?
It would probably not be possible to consider Putin as an illegitimate ruler, even if Western intelligence services wrote regarding it in their reports every day. It is unlikely that documents proving forgery will appear, since these documents are usually not forged, but written immediately on demand. Apparently, a new political leader will not emerge, like S. Cichanouskaja, who was a counterweight to A. Lukashenko. For this reason, they are not allowed to participate in “elections”. For now, the Russians are not taking to the streets because of election fraud, if other mechanisms are still in place. This, in turn, calls into question the challenge to V. Putin’s legitimacy, because the people do not show a different will.
Nor should we forget the “march of justice” to Moscow, when the fighters of Wagner’s shadow army marched 800 kilometers across Russia. After J. Prigozhin showed what can happen to the government and what troubles still lie ahead, the West breathed a sigh of relief when the Kremlin consolidated its power. At that time, there were opinions that it was not worth “rocking the boat” because the leaders of a nuclear state might turn out to be crazy. This event showed that there are forces in the West who do not think that Putin and his regime are crazy, despite the fact that some members of the elite threaten someone with a nuclear weapon practically every week.
Of course, there is still time before March, and events may turn out differently than expected today. In Russia, the “Journey Home” movement is raising its head, uniting the wives and other relatives of the mobilized. It should be noted that this movement is not once morest war, but wants to get their loved ones back. It is difficult for the Kremlin to balance them, but so far it is succeeding.
Russian “elections” have a special feature that 2023 vividly demonstrated. December 17 V. Putin’s press conference, where he spoke regarding his new goals. Namely, he promised to turn Russia into a sovereign and independent country if in 2024 will be re-elected. It did not cause any questions or major discussions in society, although the ruler’s words sounded as if from some colony that was regarding to be liberated.
#West #ready #recognize #Russian #presidential #election
2024-07-17 09:15:40
