2024-09-02 23:58:15
BBCeconomy-performed-better-under-joe-biden-or-donald-trump?" class="sc-7dcfb11b-0 kVRnKf">It’s a recurring theme in this U.S. presidential campaign — will the U.S. economy perform better under Joe Biden or Donald Trump?
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris claimed: “By many measures, our economy is the strongest in the world.”
Republican candidate and former President Trump said he created “the greatest economy in the history of our country” and that the Biden-Harris administration had destroyed it.
We looked at some key indicators to compare the economic performance under the two presidents.
US Economic Growth
While the impact of the coronavirus pandemic makes comparisons difficult, both presidents have achieved some notable economic successes even as wages have struggled to keep pace with price increases in recent years.
First, let’s look at economic growth using gross domestic product (GDP) – the value of all goods and services in the U.S. economy.
That number has dropped dramatically during the pandemic as many businesses closed.
After the epidemic, under Trump’s leadership, the economy rebounded strongly, and the recovery was better than many other Western countries.
This trend has continued during Biden’s administration, with the United States becoming the country with the strongest recovery from the epidemic among the G7 Measured by GDP.
BBC NewsBut during Trump’s four years in office, the U.S. economy was not the greatest economy in history as he claimed.
From January 2017 to January 2021, the average annual growth rate was 2.3%.
This period includes the economic slowdown and recovery caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
So far under the Biden administration, the number is 2.2% — nearly identical.
There have been periods in the past when GDP growth was significantly above average during the Trump and Biden administrations, such as the 1970s.
BBC Newsinflation
The pace of price increases has been a big issue in the campaign.
Prices rose sharply during Biden’s first two years in office, peaking at 9.1% in June 2022.
Trump said the United States is experiencing the “worst inflation ever.”
But that’s not the case — the last time inflation was over 9% was in 1981, and at several other times in U.S. history, inflation has been much higher than that.
Inflation has now fallen to around 3%, but is still higher than when Trump left office.
BBC NewsFor example, as of August 2022, grocery prices have increased by 13.5%.
That was a peak during the Biden administration, and prices have since stabilized, with grocery costs rising 1.1% from July 2023 to July of this year.
The recent trend is comparable to many other Western countries, which have experienced high inflation rates in 2021 and 2022 as global supply chain issues caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine led to higher prices.
But some economists say Biden’s $1.9 trillion (£1.5 trillion) American Rescue Plan passed in 2021 was also a factor – as the injection of cash into the economy caused prices to rise further.
Employment
The Biden administration has repeatedly pointed to strong job growth as a major achievement.
According to data on nonfarm payrolls (which account for about 80% of the workforce), nearly 6.7 million jobs were added in the first three years of President Trump’s term, before the coronavirus pandemic led to massive job losses in 2020.
Since the Biden administration took office in January 2021, nearly 16 million jobs have been added.
Biden claimed this was “the fastest job growth of any president in American history.”
That’s correct – if you look at the available data since records began in 1939.
But his government has also benefited from a sharp rebound in economic activity as the country emerged from pandemic lockdowns.
“If Trump wins in 2020, many of these jobs will come back, but the American Rescue Plan played a major role in the speed and strength of the labor market recovery,” said Professor Mark Strang, an economist at Georgetown University.
The spending package, passed by the Biden administration in 2021, is intended to help stimulate the post-pandemic economy.
Job growth in July fell short of expectations, raising concerns about a sudden downturn in the U.S. economy. The stock market was hitBut the situation has since stabilized.
BBC NewsBoth governments said unemployment was lower under their leadership.
Before the pandemic, Trump’s unemployment rate was 3.5%.
As in much of the world, coronavirus lockdowns caused unemployment to soar in the United States – but it has fallen back to around 7% since Trump left office.
Under the Biden administration, the unemployment rate continued to fall to a low of 3.4% in January 2023, the lowest level in more than 50 years, but has since risen slightly to 4.3%.
salary
As for wages, they did rise under Trump, but at a similar rate to his predecessor, Barack Obama. Obama, until the pandemic hit.
In early 2020, workers saw a rapid rise in wages during the coronavirus pandemic — but the sudden rise in wages was associated with low-wage workers being more likely to be laid off, which boosted the average wages of those who remained employed.
Average weekly earnings have increased under Biden, but are still struggling to keep up with price increases caused by high inflation.
Adjusted for inflation, average weekly earnings are lower than when Biden took office.
BBC NewsFinancial Markets
The U.S. stock market doesn’t necessarily reflect the health of the broader economy, but many Americans have investments, so its performance carries some importance.
The Dow Jones Index measures the performance of 30 large companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges.
The index hit all-time highs during Trump’s presidency but plunged as markets responded to the pandemic, erasing all gains made during Trump’s term.
However, by the time Trump left office in January 2021, financial markets had returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Those numbers have continued to grow under Biden, and despite some recent turbulence, they have also reached record levels under his administration.
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