The situation in China is of growing concern. The number of Covid cases is on the rise once more in this country, while it once more authorizes travel abroad. Health experts from the Member States of the European Union have been meeting since 3 p.m. this Wednesday to decide whether, yes or no, Europe will make Covid tests compulsory for travelers from Europe.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the statistics published by China are out of step with the resumption of the epidemic in the country. The figures would be below reality, especially in terms of hospitalizations and deaths. So to enlighten us on this file, epidemiologist Simon Dellicour was present on the RTL INFO 7 p.m. set. Are we in a similar situation as in 2020, with a potential threat from China without precise information from the country? For this epidemiologist, no. The situation is “Fortunately” quite different from 2020.
“Firstly because, over the past three years, the virus has circulated massively among us in Europe. And secondly, there has also been a very important vaccination campaign in Europe. The combination of these two phenomena is that we has a fairly significant protection once morest serious forms on European territory. Which means that, despite a certain rate of circulation of the virus, we have a lot fewer people who will find themselves hospitalized because of this virus”explains Simon Dellicour.
This time, we therefore no longer find ourselves in a situation where the population is easily at risk of being affected and developing significant symptoms. These new variants therefore do not really represent a threat to Europe. But then why reinstate systematic tests for Chinese nationals? According to Simon Dellicour, the benefit of such systematic tests may indeed be somewhat limited. “Except if they are actually combined with what is called genomic surveillance, that is to say to sequence a certain number of this virus to obtain their genome and identify the variants”, he said. China is indeed a “blind spot” in terms of genomic surveillance. “We have a less precise idea of the variants that are in circulation there.”
But in recent days, China has precisely communicated on the variants that are in circulation. Data has been posted and “We have confirmation that the variants which are currently in circulation in China correspond to variants which are already in circulation in our country and which are in fact sub-variants of omicron, which we know quite well here.”
The situation also worrying in the USA
Besides China, the health authorities are also observing what is happening in the United States. A new variant of the virus has emerged. The XBB.1.5 subvariant. represents more than 40% of the viruses detected on American soil. A figure that rises to 70% in New York. Even if it seems very contagious, nothing indicates for the moment that it would cause stronger symptoms than what we already know.
XBB.1.5. is the combination of existing Omicron sub-variants. Both were circulating in Belgium last March. It has already been detected in our country: there are 2 cases in Belgium, but there are surely more. It is shared faster and more easily but it is no more dangerous than its ancestors. So you don’t have to worry regarding it.
We are currently focusing on China but the danger might come from other countries. For Simon Dellicour, this once more underlines the importance of keeping your eyes open and having an almost real-time idea of the nature of the variants circulating around the world. “It is thanks to genomic surveillance in the United States that this new variant was detected, that we were able to identify that its growth rate was significant, with an advantage in terms of transmission compared to the other variants which were in circulation. And we might see that this growth rate was similar all over the United States.”
If it spreads to us, it is likely to be quite similar to the epidemic waves that have been caused by the other Omicron sub-variants. The Covid has never left the front of the stage, even if we sometimes talk regarding it more or sometimes less. “For example, in recent months, in concert with the viruses responsible for bronchiolitis as well as the virus responsible for seasonal influenza, together these viruses have still put quite a strain on our hospital system.”
“The Covid remains a scientific news, we must continue to study and analyze it and in particular to analyze these famous variants in order to be able to understand in the most detailed way possible the evolution of the epidemic”concludes the epidemiologist.
