The Russian invasion of Ukraine suddenly reawakened fears of a nuclear war. In pharmacies, requests for iodine capsules have been increasing since last February. And the latest threats, launched by Vladimir Putin, have further accentuated this fear of an atomic escalation. But is the risk of nuclear war real? Could Russia really use atomic weapons on Ukrainian soil? This episode of “Click – The Turning Point” takes the time to evaluate all the assumptions.
Let’s start with the words of Vladimir Putin himself. During a speech given on Russian television on September 21, the master of the Kremlin specified that “When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people.. It’s not a bluff. Those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the tide can turn in their direction. “
The precedent of Crimea
For Isabelle Mandraud, author with Julien Theron of a book entitled “Putin, the strategy of disorder, until war”, this rhetoric of Vladimir Poutine is very similar to the message he had conveyed in 2014, during the invasion of Crimea. “Already at the time he had made it known to the West that if he were prevented from taking Crimea, he would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons.
Respond to this threat at this time of the conflict, at the time of the annexation of 4 Ukrainian regions (Zaporizhia, Kherson, Lugansk and Donetsk) is therefore to remind the world “that he has a license to wage war… and to intervene in his backyard“says Yannick Quéau, director of GRIP, the Group for Research and Information on Peace and Security. Moreover, on this point, Russia is not isolated….”If you look at the major conflicts in the world over the past 70 years, you almost always find nuclear powers wielding their batons, since atomic weapons give them, in what they consider to be their backyard, a license to do the war“.
The use of tactical weapons
That said, in the present case, the scenario often evoked is that of the use of low-power tactical nuclear weapons, to allow the Russian army to regain the advantage on Ukrainian ground where it is in a very bad position. . Is it really imaginable? Or is it dissuasive rhetoric?
For Joseph Henrotin, the idea of ”low power” must first be relativized. “We are still talking regarding weapons that can be – for some – 6 to 8 times more powerful than those of Hiroshima and Nagasaki!” The editor-in-chief of the review “International Defense and Security” analyzes the situation: “Admittedly, if we look at the situation on the ground in Ukraine, with a literally gutted Russian army, with a lot of ground lost since July, we say to ourselves that Vladimir Putin might be tempted to use nuclear weapons… as a kind of super artillery to put things straight and regain the advantage!”.
