The search for the next President of the Republic still remains mysterious, despite the active efforts from various countries such as Saudi Arabia, the US, France, Russia, Egypt, Qatar, and Iran. These efforts aim to bring regarding a settlement that will select a new President for Baabda, and potentially fix some political problems temporarily. However, some suggest that Christian players, specifically the Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces, are impeding the arrival of Suleiman Franjieh, head of the Marada Movement, to the presidential palace. Political sources downplay the importance of this statement, stating that rejecting Franjieh is true but also applies to other candidates such as the Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun. Although France is promoting Franjieh, the sources indicate the matter has not been decided yet, and external pressures may lead to a breakthrough in the next few months.
Mystery still surrounds the identity of the next President of the Republic, even though the movement has become active in this field, as evidenced by the visits and contacts that take place at the Saudi level (Ambassador to Lebanon Walid al-Bukhari), the American (the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf), and the French (an active movement for diplomacy). French and Ambassador to Lebanon Anne Griot), and even the Russian (contacts conducted by Russian diplomacy), not to mention the Arab movement (Egypt and Qatar…), without forgetting the Iranian activity that is less visible to the media despite its active presence.
All these moves lead to finding a way out for the expected settlement that will bring a new president to Baabda, and fix with him the political problems (even if temporarily) that confront the Lebanese, including, for example, but not limited to, the speed of agreement on a designated prime minister and the formation of a new government. However, in the midst of all this, there are those who say that the agreement is ready, but the Christian players (particularly the Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces) are the ones who impede the arrival of the head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh, to the presidential palace, because they “gathered” once morest him and “thwarted” all the attempts and guarantees he made. It was given to them to follow it, despite their prior knowledge of the impossibility of both the head of the Forces Party, Samir Geagea, and the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Representative Gebran Bassil, reaching the presidency.
However, follow-up political sources downplayed the importance of this statement, and considered that the Christians’ rejection of Franjieh is true and cannot be denied, but what applies to him also applies to other candidates, led by the Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, and thus limited the issue of rejecting the two main players to the Christian arena (the forces And the Free Patriotic Movement) for Franjieh only is not true. And the sources add that this saying suggests that the matter has been decided in terms of the fall of all the other candidates, which has not happened yet, as evidenced by the leaked information and data confirming the inclinations of key officials in the major countries to other options than Franjieh, and that without the support of these countries, Franjieh cannot Or else to open the door of the palace. The sources pointed out that if it is reliable that France and its current president, Emmanuel Macron, carry the banner of promoting Franjieh, which is sufficient to resolve the issue, then it is necessary to recall what happened in 2015 with the same person mentioned during the presidential election fever, when the French president at the time, François Hollande, called him. Congratulations, in light of the clear support of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Head of the Future Movement Saad Hariri, Socialist Party President Walid Jumblatt, and a group of Lebanese parties, for things to remain as they are for regarding a year before General Michel Aoun arrives, with a settlement, to the Presidency of the Republic.
Accordingly, the sources add that no matter how some try to suggest that the entitlement is internal, it is not possible to believe this, and perhaps the biggest evidence of the invalidity of the Lebanese entitlement is Franjieh’s continuous delay in announcing his candidacy, even following the Shiite duo announced their public support for him and ensured that he obtained 65 votes. And if the only obstacle is the failure to secure a quorum by the Christian deputies belonging to the forces and the current, then what will change internally tomorrow, following a month, or following a year? Unless change, guarantees and pressures from outside are what will lead to the expected breakthrough? Consequently, the sources consider that the time has not yet come to settle matters, even if they are moving in a better way and at a faster pace, but they indicate that time is still required and perhaps the process of increasing the screws on the Lebanese (while being very careful not to let things go completely), may lead to Accelerating decision-making, likely that the next few months will bring a satisfactory answer, hoping that unexpected external complications will not lead to freezing efforts or diluting the current enthusiasm for the presidential elections.
In conclusion, the diplomatic movement towards resolving the Lebanese presidential crisis continues, with various countries and parties involved in the process. However, speculation and rumors surrounding the candidacy of Suleiman Franjieh and the Christian parties’ rejection of him remain a major obstacle. Ultimately, it may require external pressure and guarantees to bring regarding a breakthrough in the situation. While progress has been made, time and careful maneuvering will be necessary to ensure a satisfactory outcome in the coming months. Only time will tell if unexpected external complications will derail the current enthusiasm for the presidential elections.
