2023-06-09 17:42:19
“We are not saying that an eruption will occur, we are saying that the conditions for an eruption are more favorable” today, specifies Christopher Kilburn of UCL, responsible for the work.
Resurgence of activity in the 1980s
The energy of the volcano is such that its eruption 30,000 years ago would have contributed to the extinction of Neanderthal man, according to some hypotheses.
A resurgence of activity in the early 1980s led to the evacuation of 40,000 residents, but the volcano has not been talked regarding since then. And yet: the tens of thousands of small earthquakes that occurred from the 1950s weakened the caldera – flat-bottomed volcanic depression -, of which “parts were tested until almost reaching the breaking point”, indicates the study. .
These tremors, even more numerous since 2019, have upset the underground strata and the town of Pozzuoli on which the volcano is located has risen by four meters over the decades.
An unlikely mega eruption
The researchers point out that the effects of the volcano’s activity are “cumulative”: it is therefore not necessary for the intensity of this activity to increase significantly to increase the probability of an eruption. “A possible eruption might be preceded by relatively weak signals, such as a modest level of ground uplift, and a smaller number of earthquakes,” they note.
The probability of a mega eruption is however “very low”, tempers Stefano Carlino. “What’s more likely are small eruptions.”
Moreover, even in the event of a rupture of the crust, “the magma must rise to the right place”, underlines Christopher Kilburn.
yellow alert
If “we cannot say with certainty what will happen, what matters is to be prepared for any eventuality”, also recalls Stefano Carlino.
Half a million inhabitants live in a high-risk perimeter while another 800,000 are in a lower-risk area. In the event of an alert, the plan of the local authorities provides for the evacuation of the population by public transport. The alert level – green, yellow, orange, red – is reviewed each month. “Currently in Pozzuoli, the alert level is yellow,” said a spokesperson for the municipality, Giordana Mobilio.
“We have a constant channel of communication with the inhabitants of the town that we inform of tremors” of a magnitude greater than 1.5, she underlines.
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