Italy, and in particular the Northern regions, see the risk of a “demographic glaciation” which, without new migrations or a decisive reversal in births, will cause a decline in the workforce between now and 2040, a smaller internal market, therefore lower consumption and lower investments.
A dystopian future photographed by North East Foundation, with a study that reworked the 2023 Istat demographic data, which had sounded the alarm regarding the negative birth record. Northern Italy above all, it is the prediction, will pay the price: by 2040, in just 17 years, the North will record a negative balance of 2.3 million residents compared to the current one: it will go from 27.4 million inhabitants of 2023 to 25.1 million.
The effects will be seen especially in Lombardy (-673mila), Piedmont (-493mila) e Veneto (-387 thousand). In the North-East the reduction will be 939 thousand people, in the North-West 1.4 million. The absolute decline will be rapid immediately: -143 thousand units per year in the next seven years in Northern Italy; then it attenuates to -133 thousand in the next ten. The smaller gap in the second part of the period is explained by the “heroic” hypothesis – scholars define it – of an increase in annual births; a jump of 11 thousand units between 2023 and 2030, and of 23 thousand between 2023 and 2040. Without this increase, with the birth rate stuck at 2023 values, the decline would accelerate further, and another 385 thousand people would be added to the decrease.
The territorial and economic effects of this ‘glaciation’ will be important: the decrease in the population will not be uniform; it will be the most remote and isolated centres, with fewer services (healthcare, schools) and lower job and social life prospects that will pay the heaviest bill. The abandonment of these places will, for example, cause the maintenance of forests and land to cease, with a consequent increase in hydrogeological risk. Fewer inhabitants will mean a smaller internal market, therefore lower consumption but also lower investments. There will be a recomposition of the pyramid by age of the population, with an increase in the elderly and a decrease in the young; the real estate market will suffer a strong backlash, as will the accumulation of private savings. The “ice age” will naturally influence consumption: fewer diapers for newborns, more health aids for the elderly.
In the study by the Nord Est Foundation, the game of “cancel the city” is also proposed, that is, a completely subjective list of cities and centers that might “disappear” if the loss of inhabitants were concentrated in them: so in Lombardy, the equivalent of cities such as Brescia, Monza, Bergamo, Como, Varese and Pavia would be emptied. in Veneto they would “disappear” becoming semi-deserted, Padua, Vicenza and Treviso.
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2024-04-07 01:25:22
