2023-12-14 11:08:57
While the National Assembly adopted on Monday a motion to reject the immigration bill carried by Gérald Darmanin, can France become “ungovernable”? According to two experts, interviewed by Ouest-France, the country is not condemned to inaction on the parliamentary level and the State will continue to function. But this type of blockage is likely to recur, perhaps even more and more regularly. Explanations.
Observers feared it one evening in June 2022. The results of the second round of the legislative elections then brought their share of uncertainties: Emmanuel Macron only had a relative majority. A first since 1998. Observers raised the specter of a France that would be difficult to govern. So far, the government has been able to do what it wanted: either thanks to opposition votes, or thanks to 49.3, already used around twenty times.
“Not ungovernable, but…”
But last Monday, the oppositions united to vote on a motion to reject the immigration bill. A first step towards an “ungovernable” France? Renaud Large, expert associated with the Jean Jaurès Foundation, agrees. “Ungovernable means something very specific, it’s a blockage. The regulatory rhythm does not change, the decrees are taken and the administration administers, so from this point of view France is not ungovernable,” he explains for Ouest-France.
In other words, the State is not condemned to inaction despite the quarrels between the deputies. Most texts, which do not necessarily require extensive debate, will continue to be voted on. “Parliamentarians choose their battles,” adds Olivier Costa, researcher at Cevipof.
The idea of putting a little bit of left and a little bit of right doesn’t work and the text explodes
Renaud Large, expert associated with the Jean Jaurès Foundation
But that does not prevent this type of blockage might easily be reproduced for very specific subjects. “In the coming times, it will become very complicated for Élisabeth Borne to find majorities to pass certain texts. This will be the case for all texts which are very visible, such as that on immigration, which has been a flammable subject in France for a very long time,” explains Olivier Costa. “On certain social subjects, we can achieve identical results” corroborates Renaud Large, evoking in particular the socio-ecological dimensions.
Concerning the immigration law, the government finds itself trapped by its policy of not really choosing its side. “The conclusion that we can draw from yesterday’s event (Monday) is that it is the end of the same time. The idea of putting a little bit of left and a little bit of right doesn’t work and the text explodes,” adds the expert. If the text had gone completely to one side or the other, “there was every chance that the motion to reject would not be voted on”.
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