2024-01-13 16:00:00
06:00 PM Saturday, January 13, 2024
Written by Manal Al-Masry:
Bankers whom Masrawy spoke to underestimated the impact of Egypt’s exit from the JP Morgan index of government debt instruments in emerging markets, due to Egypt absorbing the shock early through the exit of foreigners from investments in debt instruments in the Egyptian pound two years ago, affected by the repercussions of the Ukrainian-Russian war.
The American bank, JP Morgan, announced before the end of last week that Egypt would be excluded from the emerging market government bond index by the end of this January, citing problems that were monitored related to the difficulty of transferring foreign exchange to investors outside the country, and the crisis of foreign exchange shortages.
This is not the first time that Egypt has left the index. The bank’s decision last week came only two years following it returned to the JP Morgan index, following it left it in June 2011. Countries are evaluated from time to time, and accordingly, the exit or return of any country is determined. A country in light of its foreign exchange pressures and the extent of its risks.
The JP Morgan index collects all countries and gives each country a relative weight to be a guide in the hands of every investor to the extent of risk or confidence in each country, with the aim of helping him distribute his investments in debt instruments in a less risky manner.
Is Egypt affected by its exit from the JP Morgan index?
Mahmoud Nagla, Executive Director of Money and Fixed Income Markets at Al Ahly Financial Investments, told Masrawy that Egypt will not be affected by its exit from the JPMorgan Emerging Markets Government Bond Index, due to the already early exit of most foreign investments from the Egyptian market during the first half of 2022. ,
Najla also pointed out the weak prospects for the return of these investments soon once more, with the current high interest rate on the dollar and the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region.
The Russian-Ukrainian war caused regarding $22 billion in indirect foreign investments to leave Egypt during the first half of the year before last, which led to increased pressures of foreign exchange shortages, the spread of the black market, and a decline in flows from official foreign exchange resources.
The luster of investment in government debt instruments in local currencies in emerging markets has also diminished in general in the eyes of foreign investors following the US Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by a total of 5.25% on the dollar during the last two years, which Najla believes represents a challenge for countries in emerging markets to attract investments once more. According to what he told Masrawy.
Mohamed Abdel-Al, a banking expert, agreed with Ras Nagla regarding the limited impact of excluding Egyptian government bonds from the JPMorgan index, as a result of the lack of new issues or requests from foreign investors for Egyptian debt instruments.
Abdel-Al told Masrawy that Egypt is already affected following the downgrade of Egypt’s credit rating by international rating agencies (Moody’s, Fitch, and Standard & Poor’s), and the rise in the cost of global interest on the dollar over the past year, in addition to the exit of foreign investments since the year before last in origin.
Egypt’s exit from the index, according to Abdel-Al, is due to the foreign exchange shortage crisis that Egypt is going through and the decline in the trading volume of Egyptian bonds in international markets, explaining that if economic conditions improve, it will be re-registered once more in the index.
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