Is China far away from being a “high-income country”?Nikkei Chinese website

2024-03-01 01:50:20

The 2023 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on February 29 shows that the per capita nominal gross national income (GNI) is US$12,597 in US dollars. Due to the economic downturn and the devaluation of the renminbi, it fell by 0.1% from the previous year, the first decrease in 29 years.

GNI refers to the total income earned by individuals and businesses at home and abroad in a year. It is calculated by adding gross domestic product (GDP), which represents the total value added created domestically, to the amount of net income such as interest and dividends from overseas transactions.

The World Bank uses per capita GNI as the standard and divides countries into four categories: “high-income countries”, “upper-middle-income countries”, “lower-middle-income countries”, and “low-income countries”. The standards are revised every July. The current standard for high-income countries is more than US$13,846, an increase of 5% from the previous time. The World Bank revealed that Japan’s per capita GNI in 2022 will be US$42,440.

China’s per capita GNI in 2023 has decreased compared with the previous year, and is 9% lower than the standard for high-income countries. The gap with the standard narrowed to more than 1% in 2021, but began to widen again in 2022.

China changed its strict anti-epidemic measures at the beginning of 2023, but due to the prolongation of the economic downturn caused by the real estate downturn, corporate profits and household income growth have been weak. Per capita GNI calculated in RMB also increased by only 4.7%, and the growth rate has slowed down compared with 5.0% in 2022.

Additionally, the recovery in employment has stalled. As of the end of 2023, unemployment insurance payment targets will be 3.52 million people, an increase of 550,000 people from the end of 2022. This is the highest level confirmed since 2012.

The decrease in U.S. dollar-denominated GNI was also affected by the depreciation of the renminbi. The average exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar in 2023 is 7.0467 yuan per U.S. dollar, a depreciation of 4.5% from the average level of the previous year. The background is U.S. interest rate hikes and China’s economic downturn.

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In the past, the same statistic was called gross national product (GNP), but as a term that focused more on income, the United Nations changed it to GNI in 1993. Compared with GDP, which reflects the size of the domestic economy, GNI can also reflect companies’ overseas activities and investments.

The latest data for 2022 shows that 67 countries and regions around the world are high-income countries.

In Japan, during his second term as prime minister, Abe proposed the goal of increasing per capita nominal GNI in his economic growth strategy. As the number of companies entering overseas continues to increase, the gap between Japan’s GDP and GNI will expand to 34 trillion yen in 2023. Others point out that GNI should be taken seriously as an indicator of a country’s wealth that is consistent with its actual situation.

Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Chinese version: Nikkei Chinese website) Kawade Iori Beijing

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