2024-03-20 03:00:29
Joe Biden has already been compared to Jimmy Carter several times. But he might just as easily become a Ronald Reagan…
State of the Union
In this section, Matthias Matthijs takes the pulse of the United States, from Washington DC, as the presidential election approaches.
What can we learn from the rich history of American presidential elections? Each new occupant of the White House in Washington generally has a predecessor like figurehead.
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Joe Biden’s role model is Franklin Delano Rooseveltthe Democrat who was able to redefine the rules of American capitalism during the Great Depression of the 1930s thanks to his progressive New Deal legislation. Obama was inspired by Abraham Lincolnthe honest Republican who abolished slavery following the Civil War in 1865 and who saw it as his duty to heal a broken nation.
Trump has often compared himself to Andrew Jackson, the seventh president of the United States, an uncompromising populist who rose to power in 1829 by presenting himself as the direct representative of the “common people” who were being systematically defrauded by the political elite. Jackson is also the president who became famous for the “path of tears”the deadly trajectory that Native Americans were forced to embark on following being driven from their ancestral lands.
What is the best historical reference for President Biden today? Several analysts in Washington believe that there are striking similarities between Joe Biden in 2024 and Jimmy Carter in 1980.
Reagan as a reference?
Like Joe Biden today, Jimmy Carter was not not popular at all among the majority of the population in 1980. Inflation was highe, notably due to the rise in oil prices following a new conflict in the Middle East. Leonid Brezhnev’s Soviet Union had invaded militarily l’Afghanistan neighbor in 1979, and the Americans had provided considerable financial support to the Afghan mujahideen in their resistance to Moscow.
Even today, Carter is seen as a relatively weak president who served only one term and who, for lack of new ideas, was unable to stem America’s steady decline.
On the economic front, Carter even spoke of a “discomfort” in the United States. Carter’s Republican opponent was a populist who often ended his campaign speeches with the phrase “Let’s make America great once more!” (“Let’s Make America Great Again”). Ronald Reagan ultimately won the election easily over Carter in 1980. Even today, Carter is still considered a relatively weak president who only served one term and who, lack of new ideasmight not stop the steady decline of Americaboth in the field of foreign affairs and in that of internal affairs.
But it is just as possible that the best reference for Biden in 2024 is not Jimmy Carter in 1980, but Ronald Reagan in 1984. Many may have forgotten, but Reagan – like his conservative counterpart in the UK Margaret Thatcher – was not at all popular during his first years in office.
“It’s morning once more in America.”
Their new economic recipes – which then consisted of deregulation, privatization, high interest rates and tax cuts – brought some time to produce results, both in terms of lower inflation and lower unemployment. In 1983, more than 50% of Americans disapproved of Reagan’s policies. But by the summer of 1984, many of them began to feel improving the economy in their wallet. “It’s morning once more in America,” said an optimistic Reagan, poised for a landslide victory. The Democratic candidate, Walter Mondale, then only managed to win his state of Minnesota. Reagan won the other 49 states.
Joe Biden still has nearly nine months to defend his policies and convince Republicans who chose Nikki Haley over Trump that a vote for him is a safe vote, and that a vote for Trump is a dangerous leap into the unknown .
In America today, much more polarized, such a victory is excluded. Trump and Biden are already assured of winning in 20 states. Trump in Texas and Florida, Biden in New York and California, etc.
The final winner, in November, will depend on general participation ratethe enthusiasm of Democratic or Republican supporters and the independent vote in regarding six states. But all these polls and all these Nostradamus who are already certain of a Trump victory start from the principle that the continuation of the strong growth of the American economy will not translate into a boost in confidence among average consumers.
The campaign has only just begun. Joe Biden still has nearly nine months to defend his policies and convince the Republicans who chose Nikki Haley rather than Trump that a vote for him is a safe vote, and that a vote for Trump is a dangerous leap into the unknown. But it certainly won’t be a high-quality campaign.
Matthias Matthijs
Professor of international political economy at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, DC.
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