The economic forecasts they are complex. And more in environments of high uncertainty. Last year, the OECDwith a forecast of 5% for Spain, and the study service of Repsolwith another 5.7%, were the closest to the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 and stood at 5.2%, according to the Diana Esade 2021.
This study, which is published annually, is an instrument that, since 2010, indicates how much the institutions approached or deviated when it came to predicting the macroeconomic evolution of Spain during the last three years. According to the latest study by this business school, CEPREDEwith 10.1%; caixabank, like 10%; and the Spanish Chamber of Commercewith 8.6%, were the ones furthest from the final result.
The deviation between the forecast means (7%) and the increase in GDP with which the Spanish economy ended in 2021 (5.2%) stood at 1.8 points. This is much lower than that of last year (13.9 points), but it is still higher than that of the years following 2012, according to the authors of the analysis.
Repsol, OECD and Metyis are the institutions with the highest rate of average accuracy in their forecasts over the last three years in terms of growth of the Spanish economy.
As for the employment estimates, Mapfre Economics, with a forecast of 14.3%, and CEPREDE, with another of 15.2%, were the entities that came closest to the unemployment rate with which 2021 ended (13.3%). The IEE, linked to the CEOE, with 21.5%; the employers’ association itself, with 21%; and Metyis, with 20%, were the furthest away.
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The deviation between the average forecast for the unemployment rate (17.9%) and the one at the end of 2021 (13.3%) stood at 4.6 points. This is higher than last year (3.3 points). No deviation from this proportion was observed since 2012. CEPREDE, Bankia and ICAE are the institutions with the highest rate of average accuracy in their forecasts over the last three years in terms of the unemployment rate.
The authors of the study are André BM Souza and Omar Rachedi, professors at the Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting at Esade and researchers at the Economic and Financial Research Group (GREF). According to these authors, “the surprise rise in employment is a sign that the massive use of temporary employment regulation files (erte) and of aid and guarantees to companies has been a key policy to get out of the covid crisis -19 without deep scars in the labor market or in the productive fabric of the Spanish economy”. As a result, they say, “the recovery has led to a reduction in the unemployment rate much faster than expected” and, in fact, faster than seen in recent recessions.
