In a striking image published by the official website of Iran‘s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is seen energetically waving to a fervent crowd during a gathering with students from schools and universities in Tehran on Saturday.
Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/AP
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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — In a heated address on Saturday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a stern warning to Israel and the United States, promising them a “crushing response” in retaliation for recent attacks on Iran and its regional allies.
His remarks came amid rising tensions, as Iranian officials openly threatened to retaliate against Israel following an aggressive strike on October 26, which targeted military installations within Iran and resulted in the deaths of at least five individuals. The Iranian government perceives these assaults on its sovereignty as intolerable provocations.
Any military escalations from either Iran or Israel have the potential to ignite a broader conflict across the already volatile Middle East, which is on edge due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and Israel’s ground incursion into Lebanon, all unfolding just days before the critical U.S. presidential election this Tuesday.
“The enemies, whether the Zionist regime or the United States of America, will definitely receive a crushing response to what they are doing to Iran and the Iranian nation and to the resistance front,” Khamenei declared emphatically in a video published by Iranian state media, underscoring his government’s commitment to retaliate against perceived threats.
The Supreme Leader refrained from specifying the exact timing or magnitude of the projected attack, leaving uncertainty hanging in the air. The U.S. military maintains a significant presence in the region, with troops stationed at various bases, including those operating advanced defensive systems like the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in Israel.
The strategic USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is currently positioned in the Arabian Sea, while Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder noted that additional naval destroyers, fighter squadrons, aerial tankers, and B-52 long-range bombers are being deployed to the region as a deterrent against Iranian actions and to support American interests.
While the aging Khamenei previously adopted a more restrained stance regarding immediate retaliation, advising caution in assessing the impact of Israel’s attacks, the latest developments have compelled a more assertive position. Iran has directly targeted Israel on two notable occasions this year alone, in April and October.
Satellite imagery, however, has revealed structural damage at military sites near Tehran, linked to Iran’s vital ballistic missile initiatives and a Revolutionary Guard facility utilized for launching satellites, challenging their narrative to downplay the significance of Israel’s aggression.
Furthermore, Iran’s allies, collectively referred to as the “Axis of Resistance,” have suffered significant losses due to ongoing Israeli military offensives, most notably Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. These groups have historically relied on Iranian support as a strategic means of countering Israel while shielding Iran from direct military confrontations. Some analysts suggest that these factions are urging Iran to enhance its military assistance in their ongoing struggles.
Despite such militant alliances, Iran is grappling with pressing issues internally, as its economy deteriorates under international sanctions and it endures persistent waves of widespread protests. Following Khamenei’s recent speech, the Iranian rial plummeted to an alarming rate of 691,500 against the dollar, approaching an all-time low, especially when compared to the 32,000 rials to the dollar rate during the 2015 nuclear deal negotiations.
Just before Khamenei’s comments, Gen. Mohammad Ali Naini, a spokesperson for Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard responsible for its ballistic missile arsenal, gave an interview to the semiofficial Fars news agency, warning that any Iranian response to aggression “will be wise, powerful and beyond the enemy’s comprehension.”
“The leaders of the Zionist regime should look out from the windows of their bedrooms and protect their criminal pilots within their small territory,” he cautioned, emphasizing the threat posed to Israeli forces as air-launched ballistic missiles were reportedly used in the October 26 strike.
Khamenei’s meeting with students on Saturday coincided with Students Day, commemorating the tragic events of November 4, 1978, when Iranian soldiers opened fire on students protesting against the shah’s regime at Tehran University, an event that intensified the socio-political unrest leading up to the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The atmosphere during Khamenei’s address was charged with enthusiasm, as students expressed their fervent loyalty, chanting, “The blood in our veins is a gift to our leader!” Many students made a hand gesture reminiscent of a famous threat by the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, implying a promise to retaliate against American forces in the Middle East, suggesting they would “return in coffins” if aggression continued.
In a historical context, Iran is poised to observe the 45th anniversary of the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis this Sunday, marking a significant moment in its relations with the United States following the 1979 storming of the embassy by Islamist students, which resulted in a 444-day standoff and solidified the adversarial relationship that continues to this day.
**Interview with Dr. Ahmad Jafari, Middle East Analyst**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Jafari. In light of Ayatollah Khamenei’s recent statements regarding retaliation against Israel and the United States, what do you think the implications are for regional stability in the Middle East?
**Dr. Jafari:** Thank you for having me. Khamenei’s remarks are indeed concerning. They indicate a significant escalation in rhetoric, which could lead to increased military tensions. With the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and Israel’s operations in Lebanon, any Iranian response could easily magnify the violence, potentially drawing in other regional actors.
**Interviewer:** Khamenei mentioned a “crushing response.” What kind of actions do you think Iran might undertake in the face of these escalations?
**Dr. Jafari:** It’s difficult to predict the exact nature or timing of Iran’s response, but we could see a range of actions, from asymmetric warfare tactics employed by proxy groups like Hezbollah and militia factions in Iraq, to more direct military engagements. Iran has shown its capability to target U.S. forces indirectly through these proxies, and that’s likely to continue as a preferred strategy.
**Interviewer:** With the U.S. military’s significant presence in the region and recent reinforcements, how does this factor into Iran’s decision-making?
**Dr. Jafari:** The U.S. deployments certainly complicate Iran’s options. While Iran may want to retaliate, it must also weigh the potential consequences of escalating to a direct confrontation with the U.S. military. This reality often leads to a cautious approach, where Iran may choose indirect actions that still send a strong message without provoking a full-scale war.
**Interviewer:** Khamenei seems to be responding to both external threats and internal pressures, especially given the economic issues Iran faces. How do internal dynamics influence Iran’s foreign policy and military posture?
**Dr. Jafari:** Internal dynamics play a crucial role in shaping Iran’s response. The deteriorating economy, exacerbated by sanctions and protests, creates a need for the regime to assert its strength externally to reinforce domestic legitimacy. By adopting a tougher military stance, Khamenei aims to rally nationalistic sentiments, divert attention from internal failure, and show that Iran can stand up to its adversaries.
**Interviewer:** some analysts argue that Iran’s allies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, expect more support from Tehran. How does this influence Iran’s strategic calculations?
**Dr. Jafari:** Absolutely. Iran sees itself as the leader of the “Axis of Resistance,” and failure to support its allies could damage its credibility and influence. The losses that these groups are facing due to Israeli attacks may pressure Iran to increase military and financial assistance. However, the challenge is that Iran must balance this assistance with its own pressing internal issues, making it a complex and strategically delicate situation.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. Jafari, for your insights on this evolving situation in the Middle East.
**Dr. Jafari:** Thank you for having me; it’s a critical time to watch this region closely.
