2024-01-06 11:49:34
Published6. January 2024, 12:49
Conflict: Influential in the Middle East, Iran is weakened from within
Iran is accused of playing an essential role in the turbulence in the Middle East, but Wednesday’s attack, claimed by the Islamic State group, is a brutal reminder of its internal fragilities.
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The funerals of victims killed in explosions on January 3, as they took part in a commemoration marking the anniversary of the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in the southern Iranian city of Kerman.
AFP
Men injured during the attacks, since claimed by ISIS.
AFP
Tehran has established an “axis of resistance” hostile to Israel, its archenemy, drawing on allied forces in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, armed groups in Iraq and Syria and Houthi rebels in Yemen. . Since the start of the war between Israel and Palestinian Hamas, the latter have been carrying out attacks in the Red Sea, seriously disrupting international trade. The Islamic Republic denies any involvement.
“Iran does not need to move a single Iranian soldier. It is his relays who do this work,” says Hasni Abidi, of the Center for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean World in Geneva. However, if Iran has become “an important regional power with enormous power to cause harm, it remains fragile internally,” he notes.
A double suicide attack claimed by ISIS left 91 dead during a memorial ceremony near the tomb of General Qassem Soleimani, former architect of Iranian military operations in the Middle East, killed in January 2020 by an American strike in Iraq .
Between sabotage and assassinations
With this gesture, IS came to remind us that Israel is not the only adversary of the Islamic Republic capable of reaching it. Iran is indeed confronted with separatist movements in the province of Sistan-Baluchistan, neighboring Pakistan, as well as Arab separatists in Ahvaz, on the border with Iraq, alleged perpetrators of attacks in the country in recent years. last years.
Furthermore, Tehran has repeatedly announced the arrest of agents working for foreign intelligence services, notably the Israeli Mossad. One of them was executed on December 16. Iran also accuses Israel of having sabotaged some of its nuclear sites and assassinating several Iranian scientists.
“From their failure to protect nuclear and military officials and facilities from covert operations, to their failure to secure state-organized gatherings and religious sites from terrorist attacks, Iranian security forces have failed in their primary task, namely ensuring security,” summarizes Ali Vaez, researcher specializing in Iran at the Crisis Group think tank.
Explosion of inflation
Furthermore, Iran was also the scene of protests triggered by the death in detention of Mahsa Amini, in September 2022, following her arrest for violating the strict dress code. “Focused on the harassment of women without hijab or on the repression of civil society, the Iranian security forces have clearly failed to define their priorities,” believes Ali Vaez.
Popular discontent is all the stronger as the country is subject to international sanctions, particularly American, targeting key sectors such as oil, which are putting pressure on the Iranian economy and currency. As a result, the International Monetary Fund expects inflation of 47% for 2023.
Securing nuclear energy, life insurance
Negotiations with the major powers to limit Iranian nuclear activities in exchange for a lifting of sanctions have stalled. “Securing the nuclear program is an obsession for the Iranian regime,” says Hasni Abidi. It’s his “life insurance.”
Perhaps its weakness as well, because the “axis of resistance” poses the risk of an escalation that might lead to Israeli operations once morest its nuclear sites. “Aware of these vulnerabilities, Iran does not want to see the war in Gaza trigger a regional conflagration in which it would not be able to effectively protect the country,” opines Ali Vaez.
(AFP)
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