2024-04-09 17:56:20
Iraq is outside the scope of “Iranian revenge”… and the factions have been appointed to the Golan
Two knowledgeable sources said that the armed factions affiliated with what is known as the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” will not participate in Tehran’s response to the bombing of its consulate inside the country, but “they may be waiting for an Iranian decision to launch a calculated attack in the Golan.”
Since April 1, the day Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Syria, the armed factions have committed to “restraint” in Iraq, without recording a single attack once morest American bases within an agreed-upon truce.
A Shiite source told Asharq Al-Awsat, who requested to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the matter, that “the factions loyal to Iran will not open the arena of confrontation with the Americans once more,” and spoke of a “concluded agreement” between the leaders of these groups regarding the recent escalation between Iran and Israel.
CNN quoted American intelligence sources on Monday evening as saying, “It is likely that Iran will not respond to Israel directly, but rather through a faction affiliated with it in the region.”
However, “Iran is concerned regarding a major escalation in the fighting, and does not want to give the United States or its allies an excuse to attack it directly,” according to the American network.
Part of the funeral ceremony for those killed in the Israeli targeting of the Iranian consulate, which was held in Tehran (AFP)
Erbil will not be hit
The source told Asharq Al-Awsat, “Intensive contacts between Iraqi faction leaders and Iranian officials led to an understanding regarding continuing the calm in Iraq and not attacking American bases.”
Since February 6, when an American drone strike killed Abu Baqir al-Saadi, the logistical support official in the Hezbollah Brigades, a truce began between the factions and the Americans, the most cohesive since the beginning of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” in Gaza.
Iraqi politicians promote that the truce is necessary for the leaders of the coordination framework with the aim of making the expected visit of Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani to Washington, on April 15, a success.
Iraqi sources told Asharq Al-Awsat last month that Tehran is working to “assess the situation on a daily basis and will make its decision on whether the truce can be continued in Iraq or not.”
Sudanese needs “minimum stability in the internal situation” before he meets Biden in the White House, says a second source, close to the leaders of the ruling “coordination framework.”
The source explained to Asharq Al-Awsat, “The faction leaders, following understandings with influential politicians made following the attack on the Iranian consulate, reached an agreement to drop Erbil from the list of targeted targets for Iranian response.”
The source said, “The final opinion of those concerned with this file was decisive not to target Erbil, because that would remove the leader of the Democratic Party from the political process.”
Barzani protests Baghdad’s financial policy, and attacks the Federal Court’s decisions regarding the budget and the election law, which finally prompted him to boycott the parliamentary polls in the Kurdistan region.
The source said, “The bombing of Erbil as part of (Iranian) retaliation will take the Kurdistan region out of the equation, at a critical time with the Americans.”
“Abu Fadak” (left), Chief of Staff of the Popular Mobilization Forces (X)
The appearance of “Abu Fadak”
The two sources agreed that “the state of non-position by the factions regarding the Iranian response was replaced by a remarkable appearance in Tehran by the Chief of Staff of the Popular Mobilization Forces, Abdul Aziz al-Muhammadawi (Abu Fadak), and his statement that the Popular Mobilization Forces were waiting for a decision from the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.”
Abu Fadak was participating in the “Jerusalem Day” march last Friday, which coincided with the funeral of 7 officers who were killed in the air strike on the Iranian embassy compound in Syria.
Abu Fadak said while he was standing next to the Secretary-General of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement, Ziyad al-Nakhalah, during a march in Tehran: “Now, the countdown to the demise of Israel… We are waiting for the statement of opinion of the Leader (Khamenei) to see what comes next. This is what We are waiting for him today to see what the leader’s response is,” according to a video clip published by the government “Mehr” agency.
The Iraqi source believes that “Abu Fadak’s talk, regarding which much controversy has been raised, aims to balance the truce with the necessity of registering a position with Tehran.”
Possible strike in the Golan
However, the two sources suggested “retaliatory operations once morest Israel outside Iraq,” and one of them said that “the Golan is a likely target for retaliation at most.”
The source continued: “There will be a reasonable strike, with a tax that can be borne by all resistance parties in the region, including the Iraqi factions.”
However, since the bombing of the Iranian consulate, the group known as the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” has been keen to announce daily strikes once morest Israeli targets.
As of Tuesday, the group claimed 13 attacks once morest targets in the “occupied territories,” including the Ramat David, Tel Nof, and Yohanten bases, the Ashkelon oil port, and Eilat and Haifa airports.
It is difficult to verify that the group’s attacks hit their targets, as indicated by data published by the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” channel on the Telegram platform, but it broadcast video clips that showed the launching of marches carrying missiles.
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