2023-06-09 21:24:00
(CNN) — It’s not every day that you see signs in Hebrew on the streets of Tehran. It was posted this week in the Iranian capital and reads: “400 seconds to Tel Aviv” in the Persian, Arabic and Hebrew languages.
It is the announcement of the latest missile in Iran’s rapidly expanding arsenal, which the Iranian military says can reach 15 times the speed of sound.
The missile is named Fattah, apparently following one of the 99 names of God in Islam meaning “giver of victory.” It was presented this week as a historic achievement for the national Army.
The hypersonic projectile has the ability to “penetrate all air defense missile systems and detonate them,” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG) Aerospace Force Commander, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, said in a statement. published by the semi-official agency of tasnim news.
The IRGC says the missile can move in and above Earth’s atmosphere and has a range of 1,400 kilometers (870 miles). That would put Israel within their reach.
Hypersonic missiles are those that can travel faster than Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was quick to dismiss the potential threat this may pose to his country.
“I hear our enemies boasting regarding the weapons they are developing,” he said in remarks published in Israeli media. “To any development of this type, we have an even better response, be it on the ground, in the air or in the maritime realm, including defensive and offensive means.”
Iran’s claims have not been independently verified, but experts say they stem from tangible progress in missile development.
Uzi Rubin, founder and former head of the Israeli Defense Ministry’s Missile Defense Organization, has no reason to doubt that the missile is real and functional.
However, he noted that this is not necessarily a major “revolution” in Tehran’s missile capabilities, adding that it is not the first hypersonic missile Iran has designed, although it is a “revolutionary design.” Experts claim that most ballistic missiles can travel at hypersonic speeds.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, said Iran has “a long history of making exaggerated claims” when it comes to missile development. “That being said, Iran has made tremendous strides in this matter and no one can deny it. Did Iran make it to the A list of countries that can produce hypersonic missiles? Not the case.”
The United States claims that Iran has the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East and views its missile arsenal as one of its “principal tools of coercion and force projection.”
Iran has said in the past that its missile program is for defensive purposes only. However, the “Kayhan” newspaper, whose editor is appointed by the Iranian supreme leader, said in an editorial this week that the purpose of the Fattah missile is also “to show its deterrent capacity in the economic and political spheres.” Subjected to harsh US sanctions, Iran regularly accuses the United States of waging economic war once morest it.
hard to intercept
Since 2017, Iran has carried out five major cross-border ballistic missile attacks in the region, said John Krzyzaniak, a research associate at the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control in Washington, DC. They include two attacks once morest ISIS in Syria and three in Iraq that they claim to have targeted US forces, Kurdish militants and Israeli intelligence.
Experts say what sets Iran’s new missile apart from other projectiles it has designed is that it is maneuverable. It has a mobile nozzle that allows it to travel an irregular trajectory, making it difficult to intercept.
“If the Iranian officials’ claims regarding the new Fattah missile are true, then it will certainly have more maneuverability compared to previous systems,” Krzyzaniak said. “But it doesn’t achieve it in the same way as other countries’ hypersonic weapons, and it probably won’t have maneuverability to the same extent.”
According to him, Iran’s claims regarding the Fattah are for the most part credible, as the missile is “largely a rehash of earlier, proven technology that Iran has developed internally.”
What does this mean for existing missile defense systems in the region?
Israel has several missile defense systems. Its Iron Dome is designed to protect its territory once morest short-range rockets, such as those launched from neighboring Gaza or Lebanon. David’s Sling deters medium-range projectiles. For longer-range ballistic missiles, it features the Arrow family of defense systems, which has an operational range of 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles).
Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates deploy the US-made Patriot missile defense system, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE also use the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, which it can intercept short- and medium-range ballistic missiles at higher altitudes. The THAAD was first used in combat in January 2022 when a Houthi missile was launched once morest the United Arab Emirates.
“It is possible that Patriot is capable of shooting down a Fattah missile, but it is difficult to be sure as there are still many unknowns with both systems,” Krzyzaniak said. “Reports from the Ukraine suggest that the Patriot shot down Russian Kinzhal missiles, which are similar to Fattah in that they can maneuver at high speeds.”
However, he noted that the Patriots deployed in Saudi Arabia failed to shoot down several missiles fired by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen “despite the fact that they were not particularly sophisticated.”
“Even a very capable missile defense system can ‘miss’ if it’s in the wrong place, if its radar is pointed in the wrong direction, if missiles fly too low to be detected, or if there are too many missiles in a single salvo.” said.
Gulf Arab countries have long advocated for Iran’s missile program to be part of Western countries’ talks with Tehran over its nuclear program, arguing that the missiles pose a more direct threat to its security. However, Iran’s Arab adversaries in the region have begun to reconcile with the Islamic Republic, which has greatly reduced the chances of conflict in the Persian Gulf.
This leaves Israel as the state most likely to be concerned regarding Iran’s new missile.
Rubin, a former Israeli defense official, said he was confident that even if Israel did not have the ability to defend once morest it now, “we would be able to defend once morest it (in the future).”
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