The executions of four people in Iran succeeded in instilling fear in Iranian society, calming the wave of protests that erupted in September last year. As a result, the Iranian government was able to divert its attention to new goals on its agenda, including expanding its influence in several geostrategic regions. One of the most important is the Maghreb, where Tehran is seeking to gain a foothold through its support for the Polisario Front and the deployment of Revolutionary Guard forces in Mauritania.
This move by the Ayatollahs’ regime worries Morocco. The diplomatic crisis between Rabat and Algiers does not seem close to being resolved, and sovereignty over the Sahara remains a red line between the two administrations. It is in this situation that Iran wants to use its support for the country of Abdelmajdid Tebboune to its advantage and, at the same time, put pressure on Rabat.
Iran’s increased military presence in Mauritania is another sign of the regime’s support for Algeria. According to sources consulted by Assabah media, the Revolutionary Guards have received instructions to expand their activity in several African countries, Mauritania being the most important, but not the only one. Senegal is another country that is already experiencing an increase in the presence of its forces, which led, a decade ago, to clashes between Iranians and Senegalese, and the breakdown of diplomatic relations between Tehran and Dakar.
Furthermore, the Al Quds Forces – the armed wing of the Islamic Jihad – are also seeking to establish closer relations and cooperation with the Polisario. Observers believe that Mauritania is at the top of the Iranian government’s list of priorities in order to gradually position itself in the Maghreb. However, they also note that Mauritania has no intention of allowing Iran’s advance, as they see a clear intention of the country led by Ali Khamenei to involve their country in a war with Morocco in which they don’t want to come in.
Morocco, which is one of the regional leaders, fears the expansion not only of Iranian forces, but also of its extremist ideas. There is an intention to spread Shiism in North Africa and to impose its vision. Consequently, Rabat has a double concern and tries to counter the religious influence of Iran. But if this concern is twofold, so is the threat. Any Iranian activity is preceded by the approval, even the support of Algeria, which seems determined to push its ties with Iran to the limit.
The trend in Algiers is very clear. Iran tends to become a weighty ally of the Algerians as they deepen their relations with Russia. Its maneuvers in Béchar coordinated with the forces of Moscow are only the beginning of what should be the first of several exercises which will take place in 2023. These maneuvers, which Algeria intended to keep secret, have been confirmed by the Russian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, who also announced that other military exercises should take place in the region near the border with Morocco next November.