A few months after a serious escalation between Tel Aviv and Tehran, the Middle East is preparing for a new conflagration between Israel and Iran. The assassination by Israeli intelligence of Ismail Haniyeh, leader of Hamas, during a visit to Iran for the inauguration of the new president, led Tehran to promise a strong response. Washington has begun deploying additional ships and planes, and is trying to prevent a catastrophe, without Iran changing its position on its counterattack.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaan announced on August 4 that although “Tehran is not interested in escalating regional conflicts, it is necessary to punish“Israel.
The course of the Iranian response to come, however, is uncertain: here are some of the methods that Ayatollah Khamenei’s regime could employ.
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In Iran, in the hottest desert in the world
A new massive remote offensive?
Iran crossed a milestone in April 2024 with a major attack on Israeli soil involving 150 missiles and 170 drones, according to Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari quoted at the time by Associated Press. The latter followed an Israeli attack on the Israeli consulate in Damascus, prompting Tehran to retaliate massively. While this offensive was a complete failure, with Israel and its partners managing to shoot down 99% of the projectiles, it nevertheless constituted the first major Iranian attack against Tel Aviv territory.
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And Iran is far from having used its entire arsenal in this assault: Tehran would have 3,000 ballistic missiles, according to the American General Kenneth McKenzieseveral of which have a range of over 1,300 kilometers, allowing them to reach Israeli territory. The production of low-cost, very long-range drones, such as the Shahed-136, used extensively by Russia in Ukraine, gives Tehran another means of striking many targets in the region with greater flexibility: a new remote attack is therefore conceivable.
The involvement of Eboula
The “Party of God”, a heavily armed Lebanese militia that has already fought several conflicts with Israel, has been engaged in an undeclared war with Tel Aviv for several months. Israeli strikes on the Lebanese border are aimed at creating a 5-kilometer “dead zone”, according to an investigation by Financial Timeswhile Hezbollah increases its rocket attacks against Israel. Two events suggest another escalation: the attack on Majdal Shams, a town in the Golan Heights (Syrian territory occupied by Israel since the Six-Day War) that killed twelve children, and the assassination of Fouad Shukr, Hezbollah’s number two.
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As an ally of Iran and groups already engaged in the fight against Israel, Hezbollah could contribute to Tehran’s response by increasing the intensity of its attacks. Tel Aviv has been preparing for months for an all-out war with the Lebanese group involving the firing of hundreds of projectiles into the north of the country daily.
Indirect possibilities for response
Iran is nurturing a myriad of paramilitary groups ranging from the Houthi rebels in Yemen to militias in Syria and Iraq, in addition to Hezbollah, in order to increase its regional influence in countries devastated by civil wars. As the Telegraphusing these groups for retaliation would signal that Iran does not want a regional war, while allowing Tehran to retaliate. The Houthis have already launched more than 200 drones or missiles at Israel since November 2023, while continuing to obstruct navigation in the Red Sea.
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A frontal offensive could also be accompanied by cyberattacks. In 2020, the Financial Times revealed an Iranian campaign against Israel’s water system involving a virus aimed at increasing the amount of chlorine in water supplied to the country’s homes.
According to the Telegraph, attacks on Israeli embassies abroad are also plausible. The British media outlet recalls that in January 2024, a “dangerous object“had to be evacuated from the Tel Aviv embassy in Sweden, an incident described as “attempted attack” by the country’s prime minister. Between the militias around the Middle East and the Israeli presence abroad, this new conflagration could therefore end up involving other factions in a crisis that never ends.
