With the progression of global warming, the adaptive capacity of humans and nature is increasingly overwhelmed. This is the main finding of the new report of the World Climate Council (IPCC), published Monday.
The accumulated scientific evidence leaves no doubt, according to this new document: if we delay in launching preventive global action, the short window of opportunity to ensure a sustainable and worth living future for all will quickly close, concludes the Summary for Policymakers of Part 2 of the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report.
For this new update, the 270 lead authors – including six from Switzerland – assessed more than 34,000 publications and processed more than 62,000 comments, the Swiss Academy of Sciences (SCNAT) said in a statement.
Half of the world’s population is already “very vulnerable” to the cruel and growing impacts of climate change, and the “criminal” inaction of leaders risks reducing the slim chances of a “liveable future” on the planet. .
Already in the present
The new opus of the UN experts is without appeal: the consequences of the warming caused by human activities are not only combined in the future. From 3.3 to 3.6 billion people are already “very vulnerable”, underlines the document negotiated line by line by the 195 member states during this online and closed session which overflowed for more than 24 hours on both scheduled weeks.
“I have seen many scientific reports in my life, but nothing like this,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, describing “a compendium of human suffering and a damning indictment of the failure of leaders in the fight against climate change”.
An even more significant suffering for the most fragile populations such as indigenous peoples or poor populations, insists the IPCC. But that does not spare the rich countries, as Germany swept away by floods or the United States ravaged by flames remember last year.
Faced with this dramatic picture, there is no question that this report will be eclipsed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, argues Hans-Otto Pörtner, co-president of the group that prepared this report. Global warming “haunts us. Ignoring it is not an option”.
matter of survival
While the planet has gained on average about +1.1°C since the pre-industrial era, the world committed in 2015 with the Paris agreement to limit global warming well below +2°C, if possible +1.5°C.
In the first part of its assessment published last August, the IPCC estimated that mercury would reach this threshold of +1.5°C around 2030, ten years earlier than expected. However, he left a door open, evoking a possible return below +1.5°C by the end of the century in the event of an overrun.
But the second part published on Monday – before a third in early April on solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – stresses that even a temporary overshoot of +1.5°C would cause further “irreversible” damage to fragile ecosystems. such as poles, mountains and coasts, with cascading effects on the communities that live there.
And the disastrous consequences will increase with “every additional fraction of warming”, from the multiplication of fires to the thawing of permafrost.
The report also predicts the disappearance of 3% to 14% of terrestrial species even at +1.5°C, and that by 2050, approximately one billion people will live in coastal areas at risk, located in large coastal towns or small islands.
Small-scale efforts
The report finds that despite some progress, adaptation efforts are for the most part “fragmented, small-scale” and that without a change in strategy, this gap between needs and what is needed is likely to widen.
But at a certain point, adapting is no longer possible. Some ecosystems have already been pushed “beyond their ability to adapt” and others will join them if warming continues, warns the IPCC, stressing that adaptation and reduction of CO2 emissions must go hand in hand.
“If we stick to current commitments, emissions are expected to increase by nearly 14% in this decade. That would be a disaster. Any chance of keeping the 1.5°C target alive would be destroyed”, denounced Antonio Guterres, pointing out as “guilty” the big emitting countries “who set fire to the only house we have”.
Despite the cataclysmic observation, several states, in particular China, India and Saudi Arabia tried during the negotiations to have references to the +1.5°C objective withdrawn, several sources participating in the discussions told AFP.
The Glasgow Pact adopted at the UN COP26 climate conference at the end of 2021, however, calls on States to strengthen their climate ambition and action by COP27 in Egypt in November, in the hope of not exceeding this threshold.
This article has been published automatically. Source: ats