Bitcoin was able to maintain its rise achieved during the banking crisis in March, so the exchange rate is still hovering around $28,000. The price of BTC has been hovering between $26,000 and $29,300 for more than two weeks since March 18. The bitcoin exchange rate is therefore still in a delicate balance, which increasingly predicts the possibility of a breakout in both directions.
The week’s most important cryptocurrency news in one place
Elon Musk seems to be still patronizing his favorite crypto-dog, Doge, as he recently brought out memecoin again. After Musk replaced the Twitter logo with the DOGE symbol, the value of the meme token jumped by more than 30% almost instantly. The change took place shortly after Musk was sued in connection with the manipulation of the DOGE exchange rate. Seeing the increased interest in dog projects, investors did not only buy from DOGE, so the price of several memecoins shot up in a matter of seconds.
A blogger named Andy Baio recently revealed that Bitcoin’s basic documentation, the Bitcoin Whitepaper, is hidden in all new macOS. The documentation was first published in version 10.14.0 and has not been removed since then. Version 10.14.0 was released in September 2018, so the mysterious file has been lurking on machines for five years. Now anyone can easily find the document by executing a command line command or using the Finder on newer machines. Satoshi Nakamoto, whose birthday is this week, the author of the Bitcoin Whitepaper, can be justifiably proud of how far he has come over the years.
Peer-to-peer exchange Paxful has announced that it will suspend its marketplace. Ray Youssef is the CEO of the company he added, that he cannot share more details about the exact reasons behind the decision. However, he revealed that some staff layoffs have proved critical for the company. However, the fact that Paxful’s other co-founder filed a lawsuit against the company probably didn’t help matters either.
Professional investors advise caution
Bitcoin’s expected journey to $30,000 has met some resistance. For days, even weeks, the cryptocurrency has not been able to make a really outstanding profit or, on the contrary, a fall.
At the same time, the mining difficulty of BTC has already shifted. According to data from the on-chain analysis platform Glassnode, BTC mining difficulty reached an all-time high on April 6. This means that more miners are active on the network than ever before, trusting in further positive developments.
Bitcoin is back in the green, but for how long?
According to Glassnode data, BTC’s Adjusted Output Profit Ration (aSOPR) has crossed one again. This indicated that investors are in a profitable position, however, in the absence of a significant bull market trend, a local peak can easily form on the exchange rate curve if, due to the lack of movement, investors begin to realize profits.
According to analysts, even though BTC has moved in the bullish direction, a short-term price correction may occur in the market. However, in the case of a stronger optimistic mood, this price correction may still await.
Additionally, according to CryptoQuant, the bitcoin coin reserve held by exchanges has seen a gradual decline over the past seven days. This can also be seen as a sign of lower selling pressure in the market. However, the net inflow of BTC on the exchange is not considered a good sign. This was because net inflows exceeded net withdrawals, suggesting more selling pressure is expected in the coming days.
Bitcoin’s market value relative to realized value (MVRV) has hovered around the 1.4 level since April 5. And the lack of a clear upward or downward trend could mean that the market could move in either direction in the coming days.
The bitcoin market gives mixed signals
If all the above-mentioned signals were not disturbing enough, the mixed technical picture can be added to this.
Bitcoin’s RSI also cannot predict a clear upward or downward movement. Instead, the RSI has only been moving sideways since mid-March, sticking to the 50-60 range.
In addition, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed into a very narrow band, which can definitely predict a breakout over time.
So the question now is not whether bitcoin will break out of the current exchange rate range, but where the BTC exchange rate will swing? It seems that the eruption is only a matter of time. Meanwhile, however, investors hoping for a clear buy or sell signal should remain cautious.
From a technical point of view, BTCUSD has been stuck in a price range since March 18, the price movement is paused and a certain degree of uncertainty has appeared. At the moment, trading is taking place in a symmetrical triangle pattern, and bitcoin is getting closer to the top every day.
From here, the exchange rate can start both up and down, depending on whether the bears or the bulls will gain the upper hand over time.
A bear market breakout could bring the key $25,000 level, which has served as a major resistance barrier recently, back into focus. The price was stuck below the $25,000 mark from June 2022 until the latest rally on March 17, while the 50-day MA also rests at this level, which could provide significant support. It is also in the deck that the exchange rate will test this level before a longer-term upward trend.
Conversely, a bullish breakout focuses on the psychological $30,000 level, followed by resistance above that around $31,200. Even reaching this level can certainly bring a new trend with it.
Bitcoin prices may indicate the direction of the breakout
At this stage, most people can only guess the direction of the eruption. However, according to the on-chain data analysis company Glassnode, the key metric in this case is the value of the fees.
According to Glassnode’s research, the 90-day SMA for bitcoin transfer fees is currently above the annual average, further reinforcing their belief that demand spikes may be developing, which could push the rate higher.
The Crypto Market Fear and Greed Index and the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index have both firmly entered greed territory. This again leans towards a bull market breakout. However, the famous saying goes.
“Trade what you see, not what you think.”
The technical picture and the macro market situation (such as the recent resurgence of the US dollar) could support a breakout in either direction.
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