2023-11-13 14:44:58
The major U.S. stock indexes opened lower on Monday (13th) as investors awaited the release of this week’s major U.S. inflation report and other economic data, which may affect expectations for how long the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain the current high interest rates.
before deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averagefell more than 20 points or nearly 0.01%,Nasdaq Composite Indexfell nearly 100 points or nearly 0.7%,S&P 500 Indexdown nearly 0.4%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index fell more than 1%.
Major index futures edged lower before U.S. stocks opened, as investors awaited inflation data on whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will end its interest rate hikes. The current focus is on the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Tuesday (14th). The annual CPI growth rate in October is expected to slow to 3.3%, lower than the 3.7% in September.USA 10-Year Treasury Bond Yieldmoved higher, rising to 4.6%,dollar indexIt also rose to 105.76.
Moody’s lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating from “stable” to “negative” due to a sharp increase in interest costs on U.S. debt and “entrenched political polarization.”
Analysis points out that Moody’s threatens to downgrade U.S. debt ratings, and the market will still tend to trade the end of the interest rate hike cycle, economic momentum will slow down with fiscal constraints, and credit damage means that the U.S. dollar may become the most direct rating downgrade. falling victim.
In terms of commodities, Goldman Sachs predicts a moderate shortage in the crude oil market next year. The company wrote in a report that given factors such as strong demand, slowing U.S. supply growth, OPEC supply cuts and other factors, the oil market will experience moderate shortages in 2024, inventories will decline slightly, and oil prices will remain At $80 to $100 per barrel.
In addition, Goldman Sachs is also long on copper and aluminum, both of which are important raw materials for the energy transition. The reason given by Goldman Sachs is that global green demand is currently growing rapidly, and the supply of copper and aluminum has begun to peak, laying the foundation for higher prices in the future.
As of 21:00 Taipei time on Monday (13th): Focus stocks:
Tesla (TSLA-US) fell 0.87% in early trading to $212.79 per share
The latest data shows that in the first nine months of this year, Tesla’s electric vehicle registrations led the US market by a large margin. From January to September this year, Tesla Model Y and Model 3 were the two most registered models in the United States, far ahead of other competitors. According to Experian’s vehicle registration data, from a brand perspective, Tesla leads the U.S. market with 489,454 registrations, an annual increase of 41%. Tesla’s registrations are mainly composed of Model Y (293,398 units) and Model 3 (165,543 units), while Model X ranks eighth. The Model S did not make the top 10 list.
apple (AAPL-US) fell 0.53% in early trading to $185.36 per share
According to technology media MacRumors, information related to Apple’s second-generation Apple Vision Pro has been exposed. The internal code name of the MR headset is Project Alaska, and the device identification number is N109, which is very similar to the first-generation Vision Pro. The second-generation Vision Pro is scheduled to enter the product verification testing phase in 2025, with an estimated release date of late 2025 or early 2026.
Huida (NVDA-US) fell 0.05% in early trading to $483.10 per share
Analysts at Wolfe Research said in a report on Friday that it might take several months for Huida to ramp up production to meet China’s growing demand for the company’s new China-specific AI chips. Analysts pointed out that following recent investigations and verification, the development of Huida’s H20 chip has been going on for some time, and the product is expected to be released in limited quantities within a month.
Today’s key economic data:
none
Wall Street analysis:
Although several Fed officials dismissed the possibility of a quick rate cut, money markets and economists held on to bets on easing policy. Morgan Stanley estimates that the central bank will start to cut interest rates significantly starting in June, while Goldman Sachs predicts that the first rate cut will begin around the end of 2024.
“It would be good news if inflation is in line with market consensus, but I don’t think this data will change the tone of Fed officials who are trying to dampen market excitement regarding interest rate cuts,” said Jane Foley, a strategist at Rabobank. She predicted that central banks will take more action. Tough talk to control the extent of market price declines.
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