2023-06-26 13:48:03
Investors worried that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) aggressive monetary tightening policy will hurt economic growth, and major US stock indexes fluctuated in flat on Monday (26th).
before the deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averagerose nearly 70 points or nearly 0.2%,Nasdaq Composite Indexrose more than 30 points or nearly 0.3%,S&P 500 Indexup nearly 0.2%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index rose nearly 1.3 percent.
Major U.S. stock futures were lower ahead of the open on Monday as investors weighed whether the Fed will push the economy into recession with its continued fight once morest inflation.
Investors are growing concerned that a central bank determined to curb inflation will continue to push interest rates higher and risk undermining a fragile economy. Policymakers in countries including the United States, Norway and the United Kingdom have strongly rejected bets that central banks will stop aggressively raising interest rates soon, or even switch to cutting them. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned last week that the U.S. may need to raise rates one or two more times in 2023.
The U.S. should brace for a “boiled frog” recession, JPMorgan said in its latest report, as broad monetary tightening brought on by stubbornly high inflation would lead to a synchronized global downturn. The bank presupposes four possible macroeconomic scenarios in 2023 and 2024. As far as its conclusion is concerned, it can be summed up in one sentence, that is, “economic recession is more likely to occur.”
The most likely outcome, according to the JPMorgan report, is that the U.S. falls into recession at the same time as the rest of the world. The main catalyst will be the aggressive monetary tightening policies adopted by various countries to deal with inflation, and JPMorgan Chase predicts that inflation will remain high in the future.
In addition, Michael Wilson, a well-known short seller on Wall Street and Morgan Stanley strategist, said that the U.S. stock market is facing a “Wall of Worry” (Wall of Worry, which refers to the trend of the stock market surpassing a series of negative factors and continuing to rise), which may soon The future triggers a sharp sell-off. Wilson predicts thatS&P 500 IndexIt will end the year at 3,900, regarding 10 percent below Friday’s close of 4,348.33, before rising to 4,200 in the second quarter of next year.
In other news, international oil prices were higher as traders warned that any prolonged turmoil in Russia might spill over into global oil markets. Russia’s war in Ukraine has upended trade flows, with major Asian consumers including China boosting imports of Russian energy.
Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset at Royal London Asset Management Ltd . Commodities play that role. When there is a sudden major military event, commodity prices can spike, and you’re protected from that volatility.”
Gas traders braced for more market turmoil, with European gas prices already seeing their biggest swings since the Ukraine invasion.
As of 21:00 on Monday (26th) Taipei time: Focus stocks:
Lucid(LCID-US) rose 9.23 percent to $5.97 a share in early trade
British luxury sports car maker Aston Martin said on Monday it will enter into a strategic supply agreement with U.S. electric car startup Lucid Group to produce “high-performance” electric cars. The two companies have agreed an integration and supply agreement that will allow Aston Martin to use Lucid’s technology, including powertrain and battery systems, in its all-electric vehicles. After the news, Lucid shares rose more than 10% before the market on Monday.
IBM(IBM-US) rose 0.04 percent to $129.48 a share in early trade
IBM said on Monday that it will acquire cloud software company Apptio from Vista Equity Partners for $4.6 billion in cash, the latest deal to enhance its own cloud computing and automation capabilities. The acquisition will be completed in the second half of this year.
Huida (NVDA-US) rose 0.49% to $424.18 a share in early trade
Foreign media recently reported that Huida CEO Huang Renxun said that the company is “very likely” to invest in Europe. Last Friday, EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton met with senior executives of several Silicon Valley giants to discuss content regulation and artificial intelligence (AI). Huang Renxun revealed that Breton suggested that Huida invest heavily in Europe, and Europe will be an excellent place to establish Huida’s future.
Today’s key economic data:
none
Wall Street Analysis:
The chances of a soft landing are fading as central banks remain hawkish amid persistent inflationary pressures, Andrew McCaffery, global chief investment officer at Fidelity International, said in a note Monday. Investors should be wary of taking too much risk in the final stages of this round of rate hikes.
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