2024-01-24 04:00:00
Attacks in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi militants on ships have dealt a fresh blow to global supply chains.
Disruptions to shipping through the Suez Canal, the shortest sea route between Europe and Asia, have reduced supplies of oil, grain and many other products.
Five hedge funds shared five ideas on how to profit from uncertainty. Their views do not represent recommendations or commercial positions, which they cannot reveal for regulatory reasons.
1/ CAYLER CAPITAL
* Hedge fund focused on commodities
*Size: $54 million
* Founded in 2019
* Main operation: options spread
The founder of Cayler Capital, Brent Belote, favors an options transaction.
This involves selling a put spread on December 2024 oil futures, a way to hedge bets if oil fell into a range between $60 and $50 a barrel, and buying simultaneously five times more call options that would pay off if December contracts reached $120 in 2024.
An option bets that an asset will reach a certain value, or strike price.
Mr. Belote noted that selling 100 similar puts and buying 500 calls would have raised more than $4 million if sold just before Russia invaded Ukraine. .
For the operation to work, disruptions in the Red Sea must reduce supplies to such an extent that OPEC would be unable to cope with the loss, Mr. Belote said, referring to the group of oil producers. oil.
“The main headwind is that OPEC has a lot of its spare capacity thanks to voluntary oil production cuts,” he said. Otherwise, the price of oil would have already exceeded $100, he added.
2/ SVELLAND CAPITAL
* Commodities hedge fund
*Size: approximately $400 million
* Creation: 2016
* Main activity: Long LNG carriers
Nadia Martin Wiggen, director of Svelland Capital, expects demand from shipping companies transporting liquefied natural gas, which is processed into gas for heating and cooking, to increase in the long term.
This is driven by increased U.S. production and shipments, recovering Chinese demand, a booming Indian economy and the increased role of natural gas in the transition to renewable energy.
Disruptions in the Red Sea have lengthened delivery times for LNG and the need for more ships to deliver it has increased.
“Although the world is increasingly polarized, it cannot function without access to energy,” Ms. Wiggen said.
3/ AUSTIN CAPITAL
* Systematic management of raw materials
*Size: $1 billion
* Creation: 2006
* Main activities: purchase and sale of several commodities
Tim Pickering, founder of Auspice Capital, says the fund, which systematically follows trends, is increasingly reliant on short-term strategies in the absence of a clear long-term market direction.
This resulted in short bets on grains and commodities in general, among the fund’s many long and short positions in energies, metals and commodities.
Disruptions in the Red Sea have increased the number of grain shipments diverted to Africa, lengthening delivery times and reducing supply.
“We expect a general rise in commodities as we approach 2024,” Mr Pickering said.
4/ RAIN TREE PARTNERS
* Fonds d’actions long/short
* Size: not communicated
* Creation: 2023
* Key trade: Long China shipping and container companies
Gengwei Lin, co-founder and CEO of the company, believes that the Red Sea turbulence is expected to be short-lived and has not yet had a significant impact on global supply chains and suppliers.
But as short-term shipping costs have soared, Gengwei Lin is prioritizing exposure to large Chinese shipping companies.
“China is the world’s largest importer of oil, but also the largest exporter of goods, and the crisis is benefiting shipping companies,” he said.
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, which measures non-contracted rates for container shipments from Chinese ports, has jumped 120% since December. In contrast, the Chinese stock market as a whole is down almost 7% since the start of the month.
Mr. Lin was also positive regarding containers, which benefit from ship rerouting.
5/ FONDS RIVERPARK
* Equity, fixed income and venture capital strategies
*Size: $2 billion
* Creation: 2006
* Main activity: buying companies facing supply chain problems.
Conrad van Tienhoven, portfolio manager at RiverPark, estimates that Houthi militant attacks on ships are unlikely to last more than 12 to 18 months.
Given this scenario, he sees opportunities to buy consumer companies that are trading lower this year due to supply chain concerns, such as consumer goods and auto makers.
Retail brands Nike and Lululemon are down 7.5% and 6%, respectively, this year.
Mr Van Tienhoven believes that both companies have excess inventory to deal with short-term logistical problems.
He added that automaker Tesla might also become a buying opportunity if it misses one to triple digits in production in a row and its shares trade lower. Tesla shares are down nearly 16% this month.
Tesla said it would temporarily suspend most car production at its factory near Berlin, citing a shortage of components due to changes in transportation routes linked to Red Sea disruptions.
The companies did not immediately respond to Archyde.com’ requests for comment.
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