With the financial dollars going through a “pax” period, flattened by the transitory advantages for agricultural exporters, September has short-term investors focused on the search for inflation coverage.a front that is still far from showing calm and that strongly erodes the pocket and the purchasing power, and in taking advantage of some opportunities that the market opens.
Four analysts consulted by THE NATION They propose a mix of instruments in pesos to try to get some advantage over the IPC -although it is not an easy task- but without ever neglecting their backs, nor the level of risks assumed.
As usual, the market anticipated and partially bought the optimism generated by the soybean dollar and the promise that the field will liquidate the equivalent of US$5,000 million that will increase the reserves of the BCRA. Is it something definitive, like to sleep peacefully? “It is not a permanent solution, but it will have a positive effect. In other words, buying time”, clarifies Pedro Siaba Serrate, Head of Research at PPI, and puts a piece of data on the table to be evaluated. “As a reference, the CCL adjusted for the private M3 (as a measure of the liquidity of the economy) should be around $315, implying a gap of 10.4% compared to the current level. If the sale of soybeans is not as good as expected, or in the event of a new stress situation, the CCL would have room for a rebound”.
Clarified the starting point, the eyes go straight to inflation. From IOL Investonline, Maximiliano Donzelli, Head of Research of the broker, warns that “for the remainder of the year, the consultants adjusted their inflation forecast to 90.2% for this year.” “Given this scenario, having pesos without investing generates purchasing power losses, positioning yourself in CER and Badlar bonds at maturity is a good alternative.”
Your list has the T2X4 bond, which adjusts its capital by CER, matures in July 2024, and has a rate differential with the TX24 bond, which also adjusts by CER. The IRR to date is CER +7.4% and the estimate stands at 97.8%. The TB23P bond is added to the recommendation, which is adjusted by the Badlar rate. “Due in February 2023, it pays coupons on a quarterly basis at a +5.25% Badlar rate, managing to capture a more aggressive monetary policy by the BCRA,” explains the IOL analyst. “For a conservative profile, we prefer to only maintain the necessary liquidity in pesos to face payments and thus avoid exchange risk,” says Siaba Serrate cautiously. Her recommendation: “the letters adjustable by CER or the common investment funds (FCI) are interesting to preserve part of the short-term liquidity”.
Tomás Ruiz Palacios, Fixed Income analyst at Consultatio Financial Services, proposes for the short term to maintain two thirds in pesos and one third in dollars through a portfolio entirely with FCI. “A simple and effective strategy can be to invest a third in the Consultatio Multiestrategia investment fund, a third in the Consultatio Renta Nacional and a third in the Consultatio Balance. The first invests in negotiable obligations in pesos, that is, they are credits from companies that provide a lot of protection to the investor since they do not have sovereign risk; the National Income invests in inflation-adjustable treasury bills with maturities not too far away (and therefore less risky); while the Balance fund is our total return fund, which, although it assumes a little more risk, in the last 30 days it returned 6.5%, a figure very close to inflation”
Gastón Lentini, independent consultant and advisor registered by CNV, comes alive with some recommendations to spend not only spring but also summer. The first thing he underlines:The government’s strategy with the creation of the soybean dollar seems to bring cold cloths in the short term, so a dollar at $270 is a possibility that we should take advantage of, both for those who hope to spend those savings at the end of the year and for those who are looking for investments. longer term”. To the key question: will it keep going down? He replies that “if there is no strong reduction in spending, it is only a matter of time before anxiety and prices rise once more.”
“Dollar-linked bonds or funds that seek to replicate the movement of the official dollar are presented as a possibility for the investor since futures foresee a variation of 62% by March 2023, resulting in a TNA greater than 110%”, he adds. Lentini. “Of course, if this scenario occurs, CER-adjusted assets will also rise sharply, and this logic leads us to recommend having a higher proportion of CER-adjusted assets than those indexed to the official dollar,” he summarizes. In this last category he mentions “UVA fixed terms that are still available in some banks, although the counterpart is the impossibility of having that money for 90 days and the FCI adjusted by CER that provide coverage once morest inflation that although it is not perfect, if close and gives us the possibility of getting the money in 48 hours if conditions require it”.
For investors further away, both Negotiable Obligations (ON) in dollars and Cedears are a good alternative to capture the drop in the price of the free exchange rate. Donzelli, from IOL leaves two “pearls” to add: Pfizer’s Cedear and the Dow Jones ETF. “Pfizer is a company that belongs to the health sector in the United States, one of the sectors that tends to perform better during a bear market and a slowing economy.” As for the Dow Jones, it stands out that it is made up of 30 top-tier US stocks. “It is the only index that is made up of companies that reflect a positive performance in terms of generating profits over a significant period of time.”
“For medium/long-term savings, the investor who can accept greater volatility in exchange for a higher expected return can access a broader menu of alternatives by looking for vehicles with good credit quality,” Siaba Serrate proposes. Her recommendations: some corporate ONs such as Telecom 2025, Genneia 2027, CGSA 2025 and YPF 2026 (guaranteed by agricultural exports) and provincial bonds in dollars also represent an interesting alternative.
“From the royalty and production numbers, we point out that there is value in the two Neuquén 2030 bonds, while the CABA 2027 and Mendoza 2029 stand out for their satisfactory fiscal results,” the PPI expert points out.
Lentini provides another alternative. “If, due to any of the many existing restrictions, the investor cannot access to buy MEP dollars, I recommend taking positions in Negotiable Obligations with short-term maturities and waiting to collect upon maturity. In this way, it does not violate the regulations and if, for example, it chooses the ON of Arcor RCC9, it is made in dollars at $267, although it must wait until July 23 to have them”
The Cedear are a great alternative to mitigate local risk and keep the portfolio dollarized. This month’s PPI portfolio for rather “hot” investors is made up of 40% SPY Cedear (follows S&P500), 25% QQQ (follows Nasdaq), 15% EWZ (Brazil), 15% of the XLE (energy sector) and 5% in the XLF (financial sector).
“If I were to suggest a specific portfolio thinking regarding February-March 2023, I would seek to have 40% in FCI CER, 20% in FCI Dollar linked, 15% in Berkshire Hathaway’s Cedear and 25% in dollars positioned in a very conservative FCI, waiting for opportunities, which usually occur with the change in regulations to which we unfortunately get used to”, says Lentini.
