“The Ukrainian refugees are not responsible for the housing shortage”
In some regions, the housing shortage is likely to worsen this year, says real estate expert Fredy Hasenmaile. In the interview, he explains the background to the problem.
If construction activity doesn’t pick up, the problem of the housing shortage will hardly be solved, says Fredy Hasenmaile, Credit Suisse’s chief real estate economist.
Photo: PD
Mr. Hasenmaile, in many cities it is already difficult to find a rental apartment. This also applies increasingly to areas outside the centers. Where will the situation get particularly aggravated over the course of the year?
This applies above all to cantons with high settlement pressure, such as Zurich, Zug, Geneva, Central Switzerland and the Lake Geneva region. That is where the population growth is strongest. But even in the canton of Solothurn, which recently had a vacancy rate of more than five percent, the supply and with it the vacancy rate is falling.
The reference interest rate was left at 1.25 for the time being. When do you expect an increase to 1.50 percent?
As soon as the average of all outstanding mortgages is above a percentage of 1.37, the benchmark interest rate is raised. This will probably be the case in June.
How much will rents increase then?
I expect a 4 percent increase in existing leases.
It will be even more difficult for tenants this year. At the same time, buying is also becoming less attractive, and little is being built. how do we get out Is construction activity picking up speed?
There are two key factors here. On the one hand, the spatial planning. The amount of time it would take to implement the relevant ordinances in the communities was underestimated. Solutions are urgently needed. On the other hand, building must be made more attractive again and the bureaucratic hurdles removed. Above all, private individuals suffer from this.
What do you mean?
There are a great many regulations and laws for people who want to build. So you have to deal with all the bureaucracy. Of course, this is easier for institutional companies, so they have the necessary know-how and can continue to remain profitable through economies of scale.
“The problem cannot be blamed on the state. It takes everyone.”
So aren’t the big real estate sharks to blame for the housing shortage, but politics?
Many factors have led to this situation, but spatial planning is definitely the dominant one. Politicians should have anticipated better how much time it would take to change the Spatial Planning Act. After all, it wasn’t the first change in the law in this area. It will take years for the cantons to present their structure plans and for the municipalities to be able to implement them – this should have been approached more proactively.
They expect price declines in the home market in 2024. Will this price correction also relieve the rental housing market?
When home ownership becomes more affordable, that also helps the rental housing market. But if construction activity doesn’t increase, not much will happen. More needs to be built.
Immigration has further exacerbated the housing shortage. Finding affordable housing is a problem, especially in the city centres. To what extent do refugees from Ukraine contribute?
The Ukrainian refugees are not responsible for the lack of housing. The main problem is that in relation to the high level of immigration, not enough is being built.
What should happen at the political level now?
The problem cannot be blamed on the state. Everyone is needed: private individuals, institutions, the cooperatives – the incentive must be created for everyone to make building attractive again.
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