2023-05-22 09:02:00
The guesswork over the announced Ukrainian counter-offensive continues. Even experts find it difficult to assess the situation in the Ukraine war.
Kiev – The front in eastern Ukraine is heavily contested. Above all, the battle for Bachmut continues with undiminished severity. Recently, however, the picture has changed a little there. After months of defensive fighting, the Ukrainian army reported some successes in Bakhmut. But what does that mean? Could this perhaps be the start of the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive? It’s almost impossible to answer that, even experts are finding it extremely difficult to assess the situation in the Ukraine war to assess correctly.
International puzzle over the Ukrainian counter-offensive
Wo Kyiv will attack is difficult to foresee due to the extreme length of the front, which stretches over more than 800 kilometers. According to Webber, Bachmut is strategically insignificant, but a counterattack there “would be embarrassing for the Kremlin and for the Wagner group, which has almost taken the city”. A Ukrainian success there wouldRussia frustrating and would be a major setback for Moscow”.
Preparations for Ukraine’s counteroffensive are well under way
Kyiv might also try to recapture the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in the south-east of the country. A week ago, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, expressed concern regarding an “increasingly unpredictable and potentially dangerous” situation around the nuclear power plant. Other Western analysts are anticipating advances in the south or towards the occupied city of Severodonetsk in the east.
In any case, the signs of a counter-offensive have recently increased. The repeated attacks on Russian trains and thus on the supplies might also serve as preparation. Only on Thursday (May 18) did a freight train derail once more on the peninsula annexed by Russia. The Crimean Railway spoke of “interference from outsiders”. According to eyewitnesses, an explosion preceded the accident. In Russia, too, freight trains have repeatedly been derailed by sabotage near the border with Ukraine.
When will the counter-offensive in the Ukraine war begin? Kyiv is silent
However, nothing is officially known regarding a counter-offensive by Ukraine. Most recently, the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj made it clear that the counter-offensive would be delayed a little longer. His country is still waiting for promised equipment, Zelenskyj said in one BBC-Interview. It is true that Ukraine might already attack successfully. “But we would lose a lot of people. I think that’s unacceptable,” said Zelenskyy. Specifically, the head of state named armored vehicles that had not yet arrived.
However, one must not forget the element of surprise. A senior US official told Congress recently withthat the USA specially trained the Ukrainian army to surprise the enemy. Indeed, it seems most sensible for Ukraine to keep Moscow in the dark regarding whether the counteroffensive is already underway or whether an attack is just another “test”. One can therefore assume that Zelenskyy’s reluctance is a deliberate tactic by Ukraine. Indeed, it is also possible that the world will not know that the counteroffensive has begun until the first tangible results are known. (cs/afp)
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