The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned of a possible sharp rise in oil prices in the coming year as a result of the sanctions against Russia. The full effect of the embargoes on Russian crude oil and oil products is still pending, according to a report by the interest group of western industrialized countries, which was published in Paris on Wednesday. Therefore, a “price rally” cannot be ruled out in the coming year.
According to IEA experts, Russian production could fall by 14 percent by the end of the first quarter of 2023. If this forecast comes true, there could be a reversal of the recent price trend in the oil market, the report said.
Recently trending price decline
Oil prices have tended to fall since the beginning of November. During this time, crude oil from the North Sea, which is important for Europe, fell from almost 100 US dollars a barrel (around 94.8 euros) to only around 80 dollars.
The IEA also pointed out in the report that China’s economy has remained surprisingly resilient despite the tough corona measures of the past few months. The IEA experts also pointed to strong economic growth in India.
According to estimates by the IEA, global crude oil consumption will increase by an average of 1.7 million barrels per day next year and should then average 101.6 million barrels per day. Forecasts for oil demand growth have been raised by 0.14 million barrels per day to 2.3 million barrels per day for the current year and by 0.1 million barrels per day to 1.7 million barrels per day next year. (dpa-AFX)