Shaaban Bilal (Cairo)
Yesterday, the International Monetary Fund revealed that it had reached an initial agreement with Tunisia on a $1.9 billion rescue package, which might be completed in December.
Tunisia has been in dire need for months of international assistance, as it has been under the weight of a financial crisis, while the agreement at the expert level aims to provide a 48-month package through the so-called “extended fund facility” to help Tunisia restore macroeconomic stability, strengthen social safety nets, and equality. tax and implement reforms that promote growth and create jobs.
The Tunisian economy has suffered several blows over the past years, as political turmoil and armed attacks have damaged the vital tourism sector, even before other challenges such as the “Covid-19” pandemic and the scarcity of global goods due to the crisis in Ukraine.
The International Monetary Fund warned that growth is likely to slow in the near term, which will put more pressure on the inflation rate, as well as the trade and financial balances.
Political experts and analysts considered that the IMF loan is necessary to confront the economic crisis in Tunisia, but it is not a complete solution to it, stressing that it will be an engine for the economic reforms promised by the government.
Tunisian political analyst Mohamed Saleh Al-Obeidi said: “This loan is crucial to the recovery of the Tunisian economy for several reasons, the first of which is that it will give the Tunisian government the possibility to exit the financial markets to cover the large budget deficit, which amounted to nearly $8 billion, a record in the history of the Tunisian economy. ».
He added to Al-Ittihad that the second reason is that the International Monetary Fund loan will serve as the main engine for the economic reforms promised by the government, which is to reduce pressure on public spending, which would stimulate economic activity.
For his part, Tunisian political analyst Munther Thabet stated that obtaining an International Monetary Fund loan would reduce pressure on Tunisia, especially the state budget, but it alone might not save the economy, given the size of the internal and external public debt.
He told Al-Ittihad that this loan is a result of the International Monetary Fund’s assessment of the possible performance of the Tunisian economy in light of structural reforms, adding that this assessment will enable Tunisia to enter the global financial markets and borrow from banking institutions and other countries.
He stressed that Tunisia’s access to the IMF loan will be one of the driving forces towards restoring the economy in the coming period.
Experts and political analysts expect this loan to be a booster dose and a start to ease the economic crisis and revive the general budget, but they stressed the need to work, through this loan, to win the confidence of international institutions once once more.
To that, Tunisian political analyst Nizar Al-Jedidi explained that the loan carries with it the imposition of painful reforms, the most important of which is the rationalization of subsidies and the reduction of wages, which the Fund considers a “black animal” in the Tunisian economy.
He added to Al-Ittihad that it would be the beginning of deep reforms for the Tunisian economy, especially since the Fund stipulated the presence of representatives from the “Union of Labor” and the “Organization of Customs” in order to ensure the greatest possible consensus on these reforms, noting that it would also bring Tunisia out of its economic isolation and open the door. wide range of foreign investment.
