Recently, the Covid-19 pandemic has shaken the whole world due to the huge number of deaths caused by this new highly contagious coronavirus. This spectacular event prompted major laboratories to develop innovative vaccines in record time. However, we must not rest on our laurels because other insolent and virulent viruses, including those of the flu (influenza), are sneakily on the lookout.
Poultry are considered natural reservoirs of influenza viruses, hence the common name “bird flu”. Transmission of these viruses often begins in wild birds, which can then transmit them to domestic poultry. In some cases, viruses can mutate and give rise to new strains which, when they infect humans, may not be recognized by the immune system and thus not effectively combated. This is how the pandemics that strike the world come about. In the wake of the Industrial Revolution, the modern world has experienced four major flu pandemics: the Spanish flu (1918);
the Asian flu (1957);
the Hong Kong flu (1968); and swine flu (2009).
– The Spanish flu is caused by the H1N1 strain of the influenza A virus. Spain was one of the first countries to report the disease, although the country was not necessarily more affected than others. The virus spread around the world in three consecutive waves from 1918 to 1919. It is estimated that around 500 million people, or one third of the world’s population, were affected by this virus. The number of deaths is estimated between 20 and 100 million worldwide, making it the most deadly pandemic of the contemporary era. Today, H1N1 strains are constantly evolving with characteristics that may vary from year to year.
– The Asian flu is caused by the H2N2 strain of the influenza A virus. It is believed to have started in East Asia before spreading to other countries in three consecutive waves from February 1957 to January 1958. It is estimated that it has caused more than one million deaths worldwide, mainly in industrialized countries. This pandemic has mainly affected the elderly, but has not spared healthy young adults. Experts believe that the H2N2 strain responsible for this pandemic no longer exists.
– The Hong Kong flu is caused by the H3N2 strain of the influenza A virus. It probably emerged in Hong Kong before spreading rapidly across the whole world in two consecutive waves from 1968 to 1969. The number of deaths s stands at more than one million people worldwide. Although the H3N2 strain still persists today as a seasonal flu, it is no longer considered a pandemic danger.
– Swine flu is caused by a new viral strain H1N1 of the influenza A virus. It is probably the result of the genetic recombination of different viral strains of avian, human and porcine origin. The virus is estimated to have caused between 150,000 and 575,000 deaths worldwide between 2009 and 2010. Eventually, this pandemic turned out to be less severe than expected, and in 2010 the World Health Organization announced the end of the pandemic phase of swine flu.
What is the probability of a new influenza pandemic in the future? To answer this relevant question, it is important to focus on the H5N1 strain of influenza A virus, which was first detected in 1997. This strain is extremely pernicious, with a mortality rate ranging from 90% to 100 % in poultry. So far, transmission of the H5N1 virus from poultry to mammals, including humans, is quite rare. However, the situation could change rapidly because the H5N1 strain is known for its ability to mutate rapidly with a tendency to exchange genes with certain influenza viruses of other species.
In this case, an article published in the New York Times on February 3, 2023, entitled “An even deadlier pandemic could soon be here”, raises many concerns. The article reveals in particular that a mutant strain of H5N1 completely contaminated a mink farm in Spain. In addition, the article indicates that the upper respiratory tract of minks are favorable for the transmission of the virus to humans. However, do not panic because vaccines against the H5N1 virus have already been approved by global health agencies, such as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the United States. It should nevertheless be ensured that an update of the vaccine is carried out in order to contain the latest mutations of the virus. Similarly, it should be ensured that a sufficient quantity of vaccines is available in case of emergency.
Furthermore, it would be desirable to ban certain forms of intensive breeding, in particular those relating to exotic animals, such as mink and foxes. Potentially, these farms can become hotbeds for zoonotic viruses (i.e. those that can be transmitted from animal to human), especially since the high level of stress these animals undergo in captivity can exacerbate their immune system and make them more vulnerable to infections. We must not forget the ethical dimension either. These animals are bred for their fur, highly prized by the big names in fashion. They are therefore often crammed into cramped cages. This treatment is not only unhealthy, it is also unacceptable. Indeed, these wild creatures are not made to be imprisoned in farms, but to run freely and cheerfully in the vast green spaces.
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Recently, the Covid-19 pandemic has shaken the whole world due to the huge number of deaths caused by this new highly contagious coronavirus. This spectacular event prompted major laboratories to develop innovative vaccines in record time. However, we must not rest on our laurels because other insolent and virulent viruses, including…