2023-06-10 00:37:44
He Banco Central (BCRA) released this Friday the forecasts from inflation of May prepared by the private consultants. He Index of Prices al Consumer (IPC) will announce it next Wednesday, May 14, the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (indec). Within this framework, the entities estimate that the cost of living in the fifth month of the year will be 9%which relativized the entity by expecting it to be below the 8.4% in April.
In the survey, carried out between May 29 and 31, analysts estimated monthly inflation of 9%. But the BCRA clarified that after the forecasts were provided “new information was released that suggests that monthly inflation moderated compared to the 8.4% observed in April.” “Both the various high-frequency indicators of wholesale and retail prices monitored by the BCRA as well as the CPI for the City of Buenos Aires (7.5% increase in May) suggest a more contained evolution than in the previous month,” he explained.
Meanwhile, analysts REM they estimated inflation for the whole year of 148.9%. Those who best predicted this variable in the short term (TOP-10) expect inflation of 147.4% yoy for 2023. In turn, they revised the forecasts for 2024 and 2025, placing inflation at 105.7% and 56, 7%, respectively. Regarding the Core CPI, the core inflation forecasts for 2023 were revised upwards, placing it at 148.5%, and for 2024, at 106.4%. For the 2025 annual period, they projected core inflation of 54.8%.
Those who participate in the REM expect a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) level for 2023 that is 3.0% lower than that of 2022, while the TOP-10 of those who best predicted economic growth in the past project, on average, a reduction of 2.5%. For 2024 they estimate an average annual contraction of 0.3%. For June, a BADLAR rate for private banks of 93.2% was forecast, higher than the average rate registered during May 2023 (90%).
Those who best predicted the rate in the short term foresee, on average, that it will be located at 94.24% in the month of June. Analysts forecast the average nominal exchange rate of $248.11 per dollar for June (7.3% expected monthly variation) and those who most accurately forecast this variable in the short term projected that the average nominal exchange rate for the same period stands at $248.84/US$ (7.6% monthly variation).
Projection on exports, imports and unemployment rate
Regarding the value of exports (FOB), the consultants estimate an amount, for 2023, of US$ 71,053 million, higher than the forecast of the members of the TOP-10, who projected the value of exports at US$ 70,444 million. Regarding imports (CIF) for 2023, the projections for the group of REM participants stood at US$70.400 million, while the members of the TOP-10 estimated them at US$69.429 million.
Thus, REM participants contemplate, by 2023, a year-on-year drop of 19.7% in the value of exports and 13.6% for imports. Likewise, they estimate that in the first quarter of 2023 there would have been an unemployment level of 7% of the Economically Active Population (EAP). For the members of the TOP-10, the unemployment rate would have been 6.8% during the first quarter of 2023.
The set of participants foresees a rise in the unemployment rate during the rest of the year up to 7.5% for the last quarter of 2023. The projection of the nominal primary fiscal deficit of the Non-Financial National Public Sector (SPNF) was located at $4,500 billion by 2023 and by $3.500 billion by 2024. The average of the 10 most accurate forecasters over the past year for this variable expects a deficit of $3.974 billion by 2023.
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