2024-01-14 12:00:05
Noticeable slowdown in energy prices
In 2023, a significant phenomenon was observed: the sharp slowdown in energy prices. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) indicated that the increase in energy prices was divided by four in one year, going from +23.1% to +5.6%. This significant decrease had a considerable impact on overall inflation. However, it is important to note that this slowdown has not been uniform across all energy sources. While petroleum products saw a notable decline (-1.7% following an increase of +29% in 2022), gas and electricity prices followed different trajectories, with respectively +14.3% and +12.9%.
These differences reflect the complexity of energy markets and the various factors that influence prices, such as energy policy, weather conditions and global market fluctuations.
Food, the main driver of inflation in 2023
Despite the slowdown in energy prices, inflation has been largely fueled by rising food prices. In 2023, these increased by an average of 11.8%, with a more marked acceleration for products excluding fees (+12.2%). This increase takes place in a tense global context, marked by supply chain disruptions and unfavorable weather conditions..
This phenomenon has direct implications on the purchasing power of households, particularly for the poorest. It also raises questions regarding food security and the need to adopt sustainable strategies for agriculture and food distribution.
Differentiated impact of inflation according to household categories
INSEE also highlighted the unequal impact of inflation depending on the category of households. The poorest households were hit harder, with inflation 0.2 to 0.3 points higher than the average. Likewise, older households have experienced higher inflation than younger ones.
These disparities highlight the importance of targeted social policies to mitigate the impact of inflation on the most vulnerable groups. They also remind us that behind the global figures lie diverse and complex human realities.
Outlook for 2024: towards a slowdown contin?
Forecasts for 2024 suggest a continuation of the slowdown in inflation, with an estimate of 2.6% in June, subject to stable oil prices. This trend is welcomed with optimism by economic players, including the Minister of the Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire, who sees in these figures the end of the inflationary crisis.
However, these predictions must be approached with caution. The global economy remains subject to uncertainties, particularly regarding energy markets and geopolitical tensions. France, like other countries, will have to navigate a fluctuating economic context, while ensuring that the most vulnerable groups in society are protected.
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