2024-08-30 08:28:36
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“The decline in inflation could be explained by a notable slowdown in energy prices,” INSEE explained in its report.
Good news for households: this Friday, INSEE announced that, after more than a year, inflation finally fell below the symbolic 2% mark in August, compared to 2.3% a month earlier. In August 2021, it reached a level not seen in three years. The slowdown in price increases observed for more than a year is thus confirmed, a little faster than national statisticians had imagined.
“The decline in inflation can be explained by a marked slowdown in energy prices”specifying the national statistician in a note. Electricity and fuel prices have slowed as a result: as of the end of last week, diesel prices were at their lowest level since the beginning of 2022, according to government data, while gasoline prices have not been so cheap since the end of 2022.
On the contrary, some prices increased this month, such as those for services. “This development may indicate that wage increases are increasingly reflected in service prices. But a temporary ‘JO effect’ may also be at work, for example in the hospitality and transport sectors, as evidenced by the rise in the price of hotels or metro tickets in Paris.analyzed Asteres in a report.
According to INSEE, under the close watch of households, prices of food and manufactured goods continue to rise at the same rate as in July. However, distributors assure us: prices on the shelves have fallen slightly. “Hyperinflation is behind us. But that has not translated significantly into shopping carts.”, admitted Dominique Schelcher, owner of the cooperative U, this Friday morning. Prices “It will continue to decline, but it won’t go back to where it was before. We have to bear the wage increases.”he pleaded. Lidl made the same observation: “Overall, prices are falling”” Michel Biero, the brand’s vice president, said on the same day.
After reaching a peak in mid-2022-early 2023, inflation is expected to fall this year as the government increases costly measures to ease the fears of the French. According to some estimates, this trend should be maintained or continue in the coming months. France will thus follow the trend in Europe, where price increases have also fallen below 2% in Germany.
In their latest economic reportpublished in July, state statisticians wrote that they predict the rate will temporarily rise this summer. “During the Paris Olympics and Paralympics, there were occasional increases in transport service prices due to energy base effects”. Observations verified last month. Then, “Assuming that the Brent crude oil price remains frozen at 79 euros during the forecast period, inflation will fall below +2% in the autumn and stabilize at +1.9% in the year to December 2024 ». Therefore, the pace is somewhat faster than expected. For its part, the Bank of France predicts in its latest macroeconomic forecasts that, despite “jump”, “Inflation will fall back below the 2% threshold in early 2025 and then decline sharply during the year.” Once again, the good news came earlier than expected.
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