The dizzying curve of inflation in the United States is slowly flattening, and the December figures, which will be published on Friday, should show a further slowdown, and even perhaps, for the first time since May 2020, a slight decline. monthly prices.
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“Optimism remains intact,” said Edward Moya, economist for Oanda, in a note, anticipating a report that will show “that disinflation trends remain in place”.
CPI inflation, the benchmark measure, is expected to fall to 6.5% from December 2021, compared to an increase of 7.1% between November 2021 and November 2022, according to MarketWatch consensus.
And, if we compare prices not over one year, but over one month only, it is a decline that is expected, for the first time since the Covid put the American economy under glass, there is almost three years. A fall of 0.1% is thus anticipated, against an increase of 0.1% last month.
Due in particular to a drop in gasoline prices at the pump, notes Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics. And even new car prices could see their first one-month decline since January 2021.
“But the potential for surprises, in both directions, is real,” he nevertheless warns.
It seems far away now, the month of June, when inflation reached its peak, its highest level since 1981, at 9.1% over one year.
Nevertheless, even if this downward trend is confirmed, the US central bank (Fed), which has made slowing inflation its priority, will not declare victory so quickly.
She wants to bring inflation back to around 2%, but favors another indicator, the PCE index.
Costs and risks
The monetary institution should continue to voluntarily slow down economic activity, so that the pressure on prices eases durably. To the detriment of economic growth, and even at the risk of provoking a recession.
Its key rate seems destined to be raised further in the coming months, and to remain at a high level “for a while”, Michelle Bowman, one of the institution’s governors, declared on Tuesday, acknowledging however that ” it is likely » that this weighs on employment.
“There are costs and risks in tightening policy (monetary, editor’s note) to reduce inflation, but I consider that the costs and risks of letting inflation persist are much greater”, she had thus judged .
However, it was optimistic about the possibility of managing to curb inflation without causing a recession. But the effects of Fed rate hikes take months to kick in.
And even though consumers have seen credit rates soar, consumption has so far resisted. Employment too, with an unemployment rate which fell further in December, to 3.5%.
However, the situation is likely to become more complicated in the coming weeks, analysts warn.
Layoffs are already on the rise in the tech sector, at Amazon, Salesforce, Meta – parent company of Facebook -, Twitter and DoorDash. And, in the financial sector, the banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will also part with part of their workforce.