The National Institute of Statistics has delivered its forecasts for inflation, which should continue to weigh on economic growth in the second quarter of 2022.
INSEE forecasts are not pleasing for the wallets of the French. Inflation will continue to accelerate in the coming months, reaching 5.4% in June year on year, according to predictions, which should lead to a “modest” growth of 0.25% of the French economy. in the second trimester. In this context, if the gross domestic product (GDP) stabilized in the second half of the year, the country would post growth of 2.6%, driven by the dynamism of the end of 2021, over the whole year, details Le Figaro.
Food particularly impacted
Indeed, after reaching 4.8% in April, inflation should exceed 5% in May and reach 5.4% in June. France had not experienced such rates since the mid-1980s.
The impact will be particularly visible on the price of food productsreports Capital. While consumer receipts are already showing higher prices, an increase of 6.3% in June is expected in this sector. Energy prices will be spared the most by inflation in the second half, in particular thanks to the tariff shield or even at the fuel discount. If prices continue to increase, they will do so moderately, with +26% in June against +29.2% in March.
But despite these measures, the rise in prices is weighing on household purchasing power: it should fall by 0.5 percentage points in the second quarter after having already fallen by 1.5 points in the first, even if this drop translates into part of the comparison effect of the payment of the “inflation compensation” recognized in the fourth quarter of 2021.