2024-08-12 00:30:00
The National Institute of Statistics (INDEC) will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July this Wednesday. Growth is expected to slow down from June to around 4%, resuming the downward path after rebounding in the sixth month of this year.
After five consecutive months of deceleration ended through registration Growth in June was 4.6%, up 4.2% from the previous month.the inflation index will once again show that the pace of price increases slowed down in July.
In this sense, government expectations are more ambitious than private estimates. Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo thinks the number may be closer to 3% than 4% Different calculations by private consulting firms approximate this. On Wednesday, August 14, INDEC will publish official data.
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Central bank and private advisory firm calculations: 3.5% to 4.5%
Market Expectations Survey (REM)compiled by the central bank based on private estimates, Inflation was calculated at 3.9% in July Prices for the whole year are expected to rise by 127.4%, a decrease of 10.7 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast.
Official indicators last Thursday Inflation in Buenos Aires Cityoften regarded as a precursor to national data, exhibits Growth in July was 5.1% It has increased by 264.9% in the past 12 months. The data reflects behavior contrary to expectations from national measurements, as it represents an acceleration from the 4.8% recorded in June. So far this year, the price change in the Buenos Aires region is 98.5%.
Private measurements expect price increases to fall, ranging from 3.5% to 4.5%. consultant balance Published data showed that the inflation rate in July was 3.5%, 261% year-on-year, and the cumulative inflation rate in the first seven months of this year reached 86%.
The report states that “Among them, non-seasonal food and beverages increased by 2.5% (driven by a “crawling peg” of 2%), while the remaining components grew by about 4%, partly related to the increase in the CCL exchange rate in July (an average monthly increase of 3.6%), which affected imported goods .
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this Liberty and Progress FoundationOn its own, the CPI shows Growth in July was 3.8%the cumulative growth in the first half of the year was 86.7%, and the core inflation was about 3.5%. Aldo Abram, director of the entity, said: “The trend towards slower inflation is clear. If the currency devaluation that occurred in May and June continues to reverse, we may see some months starting with 2“It will depend on how and when arrears on regulated prices and public service rates are corrected,” he said.
report Ecological Go It noted that inflation “after accelerating in June, fell again due to the impact of controlled inflation and recorded a Growth of 4.1% in July is expected to return to the downward channelRegarding the year-on-year cost of living, the consulting firm puts it at 272.7%. “This measure excludes regulated and seasonal items, resulting in an annual growth rate of 268.2%.
consultant Science and Technology UnionFor its part, it reflects the IPC’s proposal Greater Buenos Aires grew 4.4% monthly in Julydown from 4.9% in the June survey. Meanwhile, core inflation was 2.7%, slightly higher than June’s 2.6%. “The gap between the two measurements reflects the strong impact of seasonal factors on the overall measurement,” he noted. Affected by low temperatures, fruit and vegetable prices increased strongly at the beginning of the month This affects the fruit and vegetable industry in Buenos Aires. “As a result, food and beverage prices increased by 4.2% this month,” he noted.
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