India‘s GDP Projected to Rebound in Second Half After 5.4% Growth
India’s economic growth slowed to 5.4% in the second quarter of the fiscal year, the lowest in nearly two years. Although this figure falls short of potential, economic officials remain optimistic that growth will accelerate in the coming months. Several indicators are showing positive trends, and revised estimates often show upwards corrections once full GDP data becomes available, according to officials.
Economic Affairs Secretary, James Seth, expressed confidence in a recovery.
“Numbers are lower than what our potential is, but not alarming… GDP growth will be much higher in the third and fourth quarter,” Seth stated
The slowdown is partly attributed to a weakening in manufacturing and mining sectors coupled with sluggish consumption.
The economic projection for the current fiscal year stands at 6.5-7%, a notable decline from the previous year’s impressive 8.2% growth.
India’s GDP had shown robust growth of 8.1% in the July-September quarter of 2023-24, moderating to 6.7% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year commencing in April. The previous quarter’s performance was the lowest recorded since the 4.3% growth registered in the third quarter (October-December 2022) of the previous fiscal year.
Despite the recent slowdown, growth in the agriculture sector accelerated to 3.5% in the most recent quarter compared to 1.7% a year ago.
“Growth diversification
While the initial estimate paints a somewhat muted picture, it is important to remember that India is increasingly reliant on diverse economic drivers. While technologies are advancing at a spectacular pace and public announcement indicates continued confidence and solid investment, consumer spending needs to pick up.
### Growth Shift
.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also forecast a 6.1% growth for India. The IMF warned the global scenario with potent risks of caution:
“Growth is expected to pick up to 6.1% in 2024, supported by easing of global pricing pressures.”
### Challenges Persist
The slowdown is a complex issue, influenced by a range of factors. This makes predicting accurate change a challenge. Although the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry has improved schemes:
“India’s economic growth tends to be impacted by global economic trends, monetary policy tightening, along andations
**Nominal GDP growth in Q2 FY24** **ber 2024:** A review the.. may come).
The NSO said gross value added (GVA)
The Ministry of Reservicberta Cascade) while citing weak global demand , Sponge.
However, while manufacturing has slowed to 2.2% in the second quarter compared with 14.3% expansion a year ago, Service growth in the second quarter was a result of Indian economy remains pursuing new appraisal of its growth gambit.
What are the specific challenges facing India’s economy that could hinder a second-half recovery?
## India’s Economy: A Second-Half Recovery?
**Anchor:** Welcome back. Today we’re discussing India’s recent economic slowdown and the government’s predictions for a rebound. Joining me is [Guest Name], an economist specializing in the Indian market. [Guest Name], thanks for being here.
**Guest:** Thanks for having me.
**Anchor:** India’s GDP growth slowed to 5.4% in the second quarter, the lowest in nearly two years. While this is considerably lower than the 8.1% growth seen in the previous quarter, the government remains optimistic about a recovery. What’s your take on this?
**Guest:** The slowdown is indeed concerning, particularly the weakening in manufacturing and mining sectors. However, it’s important to remember that India’s economy is still relatively young and dynamic. As Economic Affairs Secretary James Seth pointed out, several indicators are showing positive trends, and revised estimates often correct upwards once full data becomes available [[1](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/IND/india/gdp-growth-rate)]. This suggests there is potential for a stronger finish to the fiscal year.
**Anchor:** The government is projecting GDP growth of 6.5-7% for the current fiscal year. Is that realistic, considering the recent slowdown?
**Guest:** It’s certainly ambitious. Achieving that level of growth will require targeted interventions to stimulate domestic demand and support key sectors like manufacturing.
**Anchor:** What are some of those interventions that could be implemented?
**Guest:** Investments in infrastructure, improving the ease of doing business, and implementing policies that encourage innovation and entrepreneurship would be crucial. Additionally, addressing challenges like inflation and supply chain bottlenecks will be essential to ensure sustained economic growth.
**Anchor:** Thanks for sharing your insights. We’ll be closely watching how India’s economy performs in the coming months.
**Guest:** My pleasure.
