For the first time since the tumultuous Watergate era, independent voters seem to have overtaken one of the traditional major political parties, positioning themselves as the second-largest group in terms of party identification. This seismic shift should serve as a critical alarm bell for Democrats striving to decipher their recent election defeats, yet this remarkable transformation has largely flown under the radar of the beleaguered party, the media, and the commentary class, even amidst weeks of exhaustive analysis.
As the Edison Research exit polls approach finalization, preliminary data indicates that the upcoming 2024 election could potentially mark a historic low for Democratic Party identification. This represents a continued decline for Democrats that commenced in 2012, a shift that could significantly influence Republican electoral chances in the near future.
Exit polls routinely inquire of voters about their allegiances to either of the two predominant parties or whether they identify as independents. When contrasting the voter demographics for the 2024 presidential race against those from 2020, it becomes apparent that Democrats have experienced a substantial decrease of 6 percentage points in party identification, plummeting from 37 percent to just 31 percent, effectively relegating them to the role of the nation’s third party trailing both Republicans and independents.
This year’s considerable voter realignment has gifted Republicans with a historic four-point advantage in party identification at the presidential level, allowing the party to secure what can be referred to as a political hat trick — capturing the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Notably, this occurred even as Republicans themselves saw a slight decline of 1 percentage point, decreasing from 36 percent in 2020 to 35 percent in 2024 according to the still-unfinalized exit polls. However, for the Democrats, this marks not only their lowest party ID percentage since 1984 but also falls sharply below their prior low of 36 percent from 2016.
Moreover, this apparent rejection of the Democratic Party extends to critical battleground states. The Edison exit polls reveal that Republicans hold an advantage in party identification in all seven of these competitive states. Alarmingly, in five out of the seven — namely Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin — Democrats find themselves trailing behind not only Republicans but also independents.
Equally significant is the remarkable growth in the proportion of independents within the electorate, which has surged from 27 percent in 2020 to an impressive 34 percent in 2024, an increase of 7 percentage points that now positions independents ahead of Democrats and just shy of Republicans, who stand at 35 percent.
This alarming transformation in the presidential electorate composition signifies the loss of approximately 10 million voters identifying as Democrats since the 2020 election, relegating them to a third-party ranking instead of maintaining a position as one of the two pivotal political parties that have long commanded the electoral landscape for the last half-century.
The drop from 2018 to 2022 reflects about 6.5 million fewer voters self-identifying as Democrats in the midterm elections. Unfortunately, both the Democratic Party and the media failed to grasp the gravity of this decline in self-identified Democrats, mistakenly attributing the absence of a widespread Republican wave in the midterms to the galvanizing effect of abortion as a decisive voting issue.
However, the true underlying reason for their midterm success was not merely the abortion issue; it stemmed from Republicans’ struggles to resonate with independents, largely a result of their ineffective economic messaging. This misinterpretation of electoral dynamics resurfaced as the Harris campaign and Democratic strategists anchored their election strategy on abortion, only to be met with disappointment when it failed to draw the anticipated voter turnout. Notably, Trump actually improved his standing with women voters, reducing his losses from 13 points in 2016 and 15 points in 2020 to just 8 points in 2024.
Across numerous states, Vice President Kamala Harris struggled to obtain the typical Democratic support base, yet her underperformance serves as a mere reflection of a broader, potentially existential crisis facing the Democratic Party. A cursory examination of the Democrats’ dwindling party identification illustrates a trend that has eluded both the party and media scrutiny.
In the presidential election of 2008, Democrats boasted a party identification of 39 percent. Unfortunately, the trajectory has primarily been downhill since then, dropping to 38 percent in 2012 and further to 36 percent in 2016. While Democrats received a marginal increase to 37 percent in 2020, early results for the 2024 election depict a steep drop to just 31 percent.
The last occasion when a national political party’s identification fell to this level was for Republicans during the Watergate scandal. It required a profound reassessment by the party and the visionary leadership of Ronald Reagan to navigate the Republican Party back to relevance and influence in Washington.
Now, finding themselves in a leadership void, it is perhaps unsurprising that Democrats have spent the past two weeks casting blame widely for what can only be described as a disastrous electoral outcome, despite an eye-popping $1.5 billion campaign expenditure over a mere 15 weeks.
“We’re not going back,” became one of several rallying cries of the Harris campaign, a message that ultimately proved ineffective. Harris emerged as a considerably weaker candidate than party stalwarts had anticipated following the decision to unseat President Joe Biden, while her strategy to remain silent on pivotal issues did little to win over voters who were seeking substantive guidance on pressing challenges.
Harris, tethered to the unpopularity of the Biden administration, faced electoral defeat, yet the issues confronting Democrats extend well beyond her inadequate candidacy. Considering the party’s descent into third-party status began over a decade ago, a thorough examination of their unpopular policies from the preceding ten years may be a necessary initial step toward potential redemption.
How can the Democratic Party effectively adjust its strategies to appeal to independent voters ahead of the 2024 elections?
**Interview with Political Analyst Lisa D.T. Rice**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Lisa. Recent reports indicate that independent voters are now the second-largest group in terms of party identification, surpassing Democrats for the first time since the Watergate era. What does this seismic shift mean for the Democratic Party as we head into the 2024 elections?
**Lisa D.T. Rice:** Thank you for having me. This shift is indeed significant. The rise of independent voters, who now make up 34% of the electorate — a 7-point increase since 2020 — highlights a growing discontent with the traditional two-party system. It serves as a wake-up call for Democrats, especially as they see their party identification drop to historic lows of 31%, which could have severe implications for their electoral strategies moving forward [[1](https://www.npr.org/2024/01/16/1224878083/many-voters-reject-the-2-major-parties-how-could-that-play-into-elections)].
**Interviewer:** The data suggests that Republicans currently hold a significant advantage in party identification and have gained ground in key battleground states. How might this impact Democratic chances in these competitive areas?
**Lisa D.T. Rice:** Yes, Republicans now enjoy a four-point lead in party identification at the presidential level. This advantage could be quite impactful in critical battleground states like Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin, where Democrats are trailing not just Republican identifiers but also independents. The ability to connect with these voters will be crucial for any Democratic strategy aiming to reclaim these areas [[1](https://www.npr.org/2024/01/16/1224878083/many-voters-reject-the-2-major-parties-how-could-that-play-into-elections)].
**Interviewer:** Considering the Democrats’ decline since 2012 and the misinterpretation of their midterm successes, what do you think the party needs to do to address this crisis?
**Lisa D.T. Rice:** The Democratic Party must reassess its messaging and understand the core concerns of independent voters, especially regarding economic issues that resonate deeply with them. While issues like abortion have mobilized certain voter bases, the party has underestimated the need for a broader appeal that addresses the economic anxieties facing many Americans today [[1](https://www.npr.org/2024/01/16/1224878083/many-voters-reject-the-2-major-parties-how-could-that-play-into-elections)]. Ignoring the views of independents, who now constitute this larger percentage of the electorate, may lead to further losses.
**Interviewer:** Lastly, with this transformation in the electorate, what implications do you foresee for future elections beyond 2024?
**Lisa D.T. Rice:** If this trend continues, the landscape of American politics could change significantly. The traditional dominance of the two-party system may be challenged as independents assert more influence. Parties will need to become more responsive and adaptive to win over this key demographic, or risk becoming irrelevant. This instability could lead to more third-party candidates emerging, altering the typical election dynamics we’ve witnessed for decades [[1](https://www.npr.org/2024/01/16/1224878083/many-voters-reject-the-2-major-parties-how-could-that-play-into-elections)].
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Lisa, for your insights on this critical issue. It will be fascinating to see how the parties adapt to these changes moving forward.
**Lisa D.T. Rice:** Thank you for having me! It’s certainly going to be an interesting election cycle.
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