Increasing the retirement age is necessary to maintain a stable social security system in the long run; the standard is 67 years for both sexes – told PAP the director of the Institute of Statistics and Demography of the Warsaw School of Economics, prof. Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak.
According to the forecasts of the Central Statistical Office, in 2060 the population in Poland will amount to 30.9 million. The population will decrease in most regions, especially in Silesia. The exception will be the Warsaw-Capital Region, where population growth is expected.
It was assumed that by 2060 there would be a significant increase in, among others, demographic old age ratio, i.e. the ratio of the number of older people (65 years and over) to the total population – from 20.9 percent. in 2025 to 32.6 percent in 2060. The percentage of people over 65 years of age in 2060 in large cities will range from approx. 29 percent. up to 40 percent
The low fertility rate still persists
Director of the Institute of Statistics and Demography of the Warsaw School of Economics, prof. Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak pointed out that the decreasing population is influenced by several phenomena, including: persistently low fertility rate.
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“From year to year, Poles have fewer children on average, but there are also fewer people at the age when they can become parents. We have been observing a steadily decreasing fertility rate since the early 1990s.” – noted prof. Chłoń-Domińczak.
Another reason for the population decline, indicated by the expert, is the departure of people from the post-war baby boom generation.
As she emphasized, consistent actions should be taken to help Poles have as many children as they want. She assessed that a beneficial solution was to restore public financing of the in vitro method, as well as to introduce programs to facilitate the reconciliation of family and professional life.
At the same time, she admitted that creating a model program that will increase the fertility rate is very difficult. “One tool in the form of financial support will not work,” said the expert.
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Will the “Active Parent” program help?
According to the professor, the new “Active Parent” program announced by the government will support the element of reconciling work and family life, but it is not enough to reverse the unfavorable trends.
“A growing body of evidence shows the benefits of promoting partnerships at home when it comes to sharing care responsibilities between parents. Housing policy is also an important issue,” she noted.
According to the expert, one of the key challenges is the need to raise the retirement age. Currently in Poland it is 60 years for women and 65 years for men.
“This is a politically very difficult topic, but with shrinking resources on the labor market it is necessary,” said the professor.
She pointed out that in the European Union countries, raising the retirement age is standard, and in many countries this age is increasing along with the change in life expectancy. “The standard is 67 years for both sexes. In some countries it will be over 70 years in the short term,” said Prof. Chłoń-Domińczak.
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“Increasing the retirement age is essential and necessary to maintain a stable system of insurance and social transfers in Poland in the long run,” the expert emphasized.
She pointed out that demographic policy also requires the development of a long-term care support system for older people. “We don’t have a good answer to that yet in terms of our social support system. We need to develop it,” said Prof. Chłoń-Domińczak.
Artificial intelligence is our ally
She pointed out that unfavorable trends also pose a challenge to the labor market. “The problem of labor shortages will deepen, so investing in the development of employees’ skills and productivity is very important,” she said.
She added that the need to develop new technologies that can replace physical human work will also increase. “The use of artificial intelligence, issues related to robotics and automation will certainly be our ally. The point is for our economy to develop despite shrinking labor resources,” emphasized Prof. Chłoń-Domińczak.
She emphasized that foreigners have a positive impact on the financial situation of social security. “We still see a large group of foreigners working in Poland, not only informally, which was standard in the past, but more and more of them are also insured with ZUS and in this sense they certainly support maintaining various types of social transfers, which are also a consequence of the changes taking place. demographics,” said the expert.
PAP / RL / opr. LisA
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