2024-01-14 23:19:00
The Government will implement a new measure with an impact on pockets. Starting this Monday, the train and bus ticket will rise 45% in the AMBA, one of the items that will continue to put pressure on inflation in January and might contribute to set at 25% monthly, a level similar to the record reached in December.
The new rate was supposed to go into effect on January 1, but was ultimately delayed until tomorrow. In this way, the minimum value of the group will go from $ 52,96 a $ 76,92while that of the Miter, Sarmiento and San Martín railway, from $ 25,72 a $ 37,38and that of Roca, Belgrano and Urquiza, of $ 33,29 a $ 48,38.
Since the inauguration of Javier Milei, there were increases in prepaid bills, gasoline and the Fair Prices program ended, while increases in transportation and energy were authorized for correct “repressed prices”. The plan is to unfreeze the increases that were suspended and reduce subsidies to eliminate the fiscal deficit.
But that combo, added to the devaluation in December, accelerated inflation even further and caused a sharp drop in consumption and real wages. In December, the INDEC CPI was 25.5% monthly, the highest record in 33 years, explained in good measured by food (29.7%), transportation (31.7%) and health (32.6%).
In this context, the Government evaluates its next steps. After the public gas hearing, which might lead to increases in ballots of up to 700% between February and April, this week or next will be the hearing to review the cost of transportation and the level of subsidies, which today is 90% (only 10% covers the ticket).
The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, is in a hurry to reduce these expenses due to the agreement reached with the IMF last week, where it is expected that the cut will go through administration, transportation and energy subsidies, discretionary transfers to provinces and public companies. , and less public works.
The Ministry of Transportation has yet to carry out a comprehensive review of the rate and define an update criterion. This Tuesday there will be a meeting with businessmen, who will ask for recognition of a technical fee of $800 in December and update subsidies, and another with the UTA union to define joint agreements.
Since July, Sergio Massa had arranged monthly increases in the transportation ticket adjusted for INDEC inflation, but following the defeat in the PASO they were suspended and the rule lost validity in December. Now, officials are evaluating a scheme also indexed to the CPI, but with bimonthly adjustments.
The idea is to establish as of February 1 a rate in the AMBA equivalent to that of the urban conglomerates in the interior of the country, where the ticket ranges between $85 and $500, depending on the region. The businessmen’s expectation is that the bus ticket will cost between $250 and $300.
Although some economists believe that the increase in transportation in AMBA would have a neutral effect on the INDEC CPI because it would be offset by minor adjustments in the rest of the country, LCG and most analysts expect an inflation of 25% in January for the impact of that and other items, along with the “second round” effect.
These levels of price inertia raise questions regarding the exchange rate and wage strategy. With an official dollar running at 2% monthly, the Government established a kind of “exchange anchor”, which if maintained over time would lead to a new jump in the price in the face of the escalation of prices, according to analysts.
On the other hand, if salaries they do not keep up with inflationAs has been happening, the effect of the recession and the possible “salary anchor” will cause a loss of at least 10% in purchasing power during the summer, according to Ecolatina. In this framework, inflation might slow down due to the collapse in salaries.
On the other hand, if unions managed to compensate for the impact in joint ventures or companies marked up prices, the “distributive bid” might accelerate inflation to 400% in the year and the exchange strategy would be complicated even in the case of a new devaluation and slippage. exchange rate, according to the consulting firm Suramericana.
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