2023-07-12 19:59:52
The G7 countries, all present at the NATO summit in Vilnius, offered Ukraine unprecedented security guarantees, pending its accession to the Alliance.
“It was a historic high,” told us Admiral Michel Hofman, Belgian Chief of Defense, at the exit of the annual high mass of NATO in Vilnius. Historic because the allies welcomed for the first time Finland, their new member, and Sweden, ready to join since Turkey lifted its veto. Historic because Ukraine received the assurance of being invited to join NATO and, from the G7, long-term security guarantees once morest the Russian invader.
“The challenge has always been managing the high expectations from Zelensky.”
Alexander Mattelaer
Professor at the VUB and researcher at the Royal Egmont Institute
“This summit will remain a success,” said Wednesday Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, appearing relaxed alongside NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenbergbefore the inauguration of the NATO-Ukraine Council.
The day before, Zelensky had took to Twitter to vent his anger, calling NATO’s decision not to provide Ukraine with a membership timetable ‘absurd’. The leaders of the Alliance had agreed to extend an invitation to Kyiv to join “when the conditions are met“. A millimetric formulation, excluding any timing.
Zelensky’s re-entrant curve
After a dinner with the 31 NATO leaders on Tuesday evening and several bilateral meetings on Wednesday morning, the Ukrainian leader has softened. “The challenge has always been to manage the high expectations from Zelensky,” explains Alexander Mattelaer, professor at the VUB and researcher at the Royal Egmont Institute.
Several advances have contributed to appeasement. The allies have deleted Membership Action Plan (MAP), a usual step in the accession process which provides for a series of conditions to be fulfilled, both democratically and militarily. For NATO, kyiv would have already fulfilled these conditions. This is, in the eyes of Zelensky, “the most important outcome of the summit”.
Full screen view NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (right) kisses Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky following a press conference on the sidelines of the Vilnius summit. ©AFP
The inward curve is also linked to the granting of new military aid. French Scalp missiles, German equipment for 700 million euros, drones, missiles and rations offered by Norway. And especially, the provision of substantial security guarantees by the G7 countries (USA, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan).
“Ukraine is closer than ever to NATO.”
Jens Stoltenberg
Secretary General of NATO
“Ukraine is closer than ever to NATO”, concluded Jens Stoltenberg, emphasizing three things: the creation of the NATO-Ukraine Councilwhich puts the two partners “on an equal footing”, the adoption of a multiannual program to support the modernization of the Ukrainian army and an initial invitation to join.
Incidentally, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace allowed himself to invite Zelensky to “show more gratitude”.
Read also
NATO will invite Ukraine to join “when the conditions are met”
Awareness
For some observers, the Vilnius summit did not land much further than the Bucharest summit in 2008, when NATO first recognized Ukraine’s vocation to join the Alliancewithout ever materializing.
“We have never given such support to a country at war.”
Ludivine Dedonder
Defense Minister
But, in eight years, things have changed. Russia invaded Ukraine, prompting an unprecedented wave of military, financial and humanitarian support from Europe and the United States. Russian aggression and this solidarity sealed the fate of Ukraine and the West.
The use of the word “invitation” in the Vilnius press release is a first in relations between NATO and Ukraine, translating a desire to move forward. “The determination of each member country to welcome Ukraine was strong during the speeches,” Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder (PS) told us. “We have never given such support to a country at war.”
“This summit is also the one where the allies have become aware of the need to move forward with Ukraine’s accession“, summarizes Alexandre Mattelaer. “A few months ago, it was still a distant thing. Today, they realized that once the war is over, Ukraine will have to join.”
One thing was clear, Ukraine will not join before the end of the war. The allies seek to preserve since the invasion”a very delicate balance between supporting Ukraine and not going to war with Russia”said Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo.
Zelensky was understanding on this issue. “Ukraine understands. After all, we don’t want a world war,” he said.
Security guarantees
The G7 countries adopted, on the sidelines of the summit, a joint declaration in which they propose to “work with Ukraine to specific and bilateral long-term security commitments in order to guarantee a lasting force capable of defend Ukraine today and deter Russian aggression in the future“.
Full screen view Prime Minister Alexander De Croo at a press conference in Vilnius. ©BELGA
These commitments are comparable to those the United States has offered to Israel. They guarantee access to sophisticated equipment, intelligence and cybersecurity. “Our support will extend long into the future“, affirmed the president of the United States Joe Biden.
The announcement provoked the ire of Moscow, which claimed that these guarantees “undermine the security of Russia”.
De Croo sees it opportunities that the Belgian defense industry must seize. “It’s a broad and very interesting programme. Belgium will analyze how it can participate in it on an industrial level”, he reacted.
Alliance Strengthening
The allies also adopted three regional defense plans aimed at strengthening NATO’s eastern flank once morest the Russian threat. These plans involve placing 300,000 troops in advanced readiness. Added to this is the decision to consider as “a minimum” defense spending reaching 2% of GDP.
For Belgium, the effort will be considerable. “NATO will need Belgian forces much more than today,” said Alexander Mattelaer. The Belgian part represents 2% of Alliance abilitieswhich means that our country will have to put 6,000 soldiers at its disposal, according to this expert.
“We know that we will have to make more efforts”, indicated the Minister of Defense, recalling the growth of Belgian defense spending and the presence of 700 soldiers in Lithuania and Romania until the end of the year.
The summary
The G7 countries adopted, on the sidelines of the NATO summit, a declaration offering long-term security guarantees to Ukraine pending NATO membership. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also received the assurance of new military aid during bilateral meetings. Ulcerated, the day before, not to receive a date for the accession of his country to the Alliance, he made a re-entrant curve.
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