2023-04-21 06:01:39
The recent loan from the International Monetary Fund has prompted opposing opinions. On the one hand, the pessimists consider that nothing will change and that worse, this loan risks making the situation more complex. On the other hand, optimists believe that this agreement is the cure for the ills that haunt our ailing economy. For our analyst, we should rather debate on the ways out of this slump. Analysis.
Necessary but not sufficient for those who only ever see the glass half full. Too little and too late, for others pointing to the hopelessly empty part of the glass. We will all understand that. This is the IMF loan received by Burundi. This envelope is estimated at 261.7 million USD dollars over 40 months.
In short, between a breath of fresh air for some and small drop of water in an ocean of our funding needs, opinions are too divided. In my opinion, this is not the time to discuss the loan received. Rather, it is necessary to debate on the ways and means out of this slump.
The loan, a necessary evil
First of all, this agreement should not be underestimated. The pessimists omit that in this very particular situation in the economic history of Burundi, this IMF loan is a necessary evil.
The finding is distressing. Each day has enough trouble of its. Market prices are soaring as much as our hopes. This steamroller of inflation sweeps away everything in its path. Investment is no more than a distant memory, dragging down production and jobs.
Moreover, savings are also a thing of the past and the specter of bankruptcy and default in reimbursement and payment haunts all merchants’ minds. What regarding production? This is not enough to feed the many mouths.
Obviously, this panoply of evil problems erodes purchasing power and marks the definitive fall of the hope of the average citizen, today, depressed, distraught, who even gives up fighting for a better future. Resilience, did you say?
Each passing day, full of promises and projects, undermines our productive potential, our ability to rebound, as much as our foreign exchange reserves.. In September 2014these covered, 4.4 months of import to fall, in September 2022, at 1.8 months. Nothing suggests the slightest rise. On the contrary: the worst seems to be on the horizon. And therein lies the imminent danger, if we are not careful. Because, behind this haemorrhage, points the very real threat of a massive and brutal dropout of the BIF, in which case, the country would experience its darkest hours. That is why this loan is a necessary evil for our country.
However, this loan will not solve all our problems…
Optimists are wrong. You don’t have to declare victory very quickly. This loan is not the magic solution. We must first agree on one important thing. Any country receiving this loan is sick. The IMF does not choose its patients. It is the latter who come to him. And very often, like us, they come when they are at an advanced stage of the disease.
In this state, although we fear the demands of our doctor and his medical prescription, we resolve to do so in spite of ourselves, for fear of financial sinking. We agree, coerced and forced, with no other lifeline on the horizon. To benefit from his treatment, the praetor demanded reforms. Let’s face it, they are painful! They are bitter pills for some, a sweet drug for others less recalcitrant. We expect, with these reforms, consequences on our daily lives. No doubt prices, taxes, etc. will be taking the elevator shortly.
Let’s get our economy back on track
For the moment, this agreement is not enough to put an end to our ordeal. Burundi’s problems run much deeper than we think. To get out of it, we are going to have to work head-on on painful, and no less budget-intensive, reforms.
The crucial question requiring an answer is then: “How can we straighten out our economy and build a new development model compatible with our democratic vision other than by waging war on all the evils that precipitated our collapse? » It is a relentless war that requires having at the top a commander who knows how to lead his troops into battle, by closing the lines, in a spirit of reconquest, in unison in sacrifice and pain.
Ultimately, the ball is now in the court of the state, the main architect of national policies. Necessity is law: the State must in no way derogate from its duty to model nor exonerate itself from its share of sacrifice by reducing its standard of living, in order to free up investment and production.
Did you find this article helpful?
1682112056
#unison #sacrifice #pain
