2023-10-21 06:03:32
In the run-up to the general elections on Sunday, October 22, financial dollars set the upward pace in the exchange market.
With the blue market “frozen”, due to the operations in the caves that caused a distortion in the price of the parallel currency, it oscillated between $900 and in some places it reached $1,200 at the selling point, the price of the Cash with Liquidation, which operates in the bond market, added $153 and climbed to $1,110 which, adjusted for inflation, is at its highest value in the last 30 years.
The increase responds to the strong official intervention on the parallel dollar market and the uncertainty generated by the elections and an increasingly challenging economic situation in a context of great tension due to the greater demand due to the dollarization pressure of portfolios on the eve of the elections, and of little supply as a result of the raids on the financial caves.
For its part, the MEP stood at $913.
“We arrive at election day with enormous imbalances and a market full of questions that no one can answer and that causes uncertainty and the search for coverage to reign. Precisely what we have for Monday are more doubts than expectations in the face of possible scenarios that are very different,” Andres Reschini, consultant at F2 Soluciones Financieras, explained to PERFIL.
And he added: “Blue is a reflection of this scenario. It seems to me that these values have a large component of uncertainty, fear, or whatever you prefer to call it.”
The price impact of this rise in dollars is already being observed, and it remains to be seen what may happen following Sunday’s elections.
According to the survey by the Freedom and Progress Foundation (LyP), the first half of October accumulated an increase of 9.6% and they estimate that the month would close between 12.1% and 13.2% in their further calculations. pessimists, which would imply the third consecutive month with double digits of inflation.
“The slowdown in the weekly CPI, which had been perceived in the last weeks of September, was reversed in October and, once once more, we are noticing an increase in the speed with which prices increase. So much so, that in the first week of the month we registered a variation of 4.2%, while in the second it was 4.5%,” the LyP report detailed.
The Government itself recognizes that inflation returned to its acceleration path and in its own estimate made by the Ministry of Economy it showed 2.2% for the second week of October.
“The weekly rise has been higher than we expected a week ago and we understand it has been influenced by the recent strong rise in financial dollars (of the order of 20% in a very few days),” said the report presented by the Ministry of Finance. Economic policy.
The portfolio in charge of Gabriel Rubinstein expressed that “when financial dollars register abrupt increases, many merchants and producers increase their prices preventively and many consumers validate such increases for fear that the increases will accelerate.”
Meanwhile, the Minister-Candidate, Sergio Massa, passed the electoral ban on Friday with the representatives of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) in the Ministry of Economy and signed a loan for 850 million dollars.
Something similar happened the Saturday before the PASO where the Tigrense met with the economic cabinet on the fifth floor of the Treasury Palace to underpin possible measures in the face of the market reaction on post-election Monday.
Also, from Economy they announced that the pending payment to the IMF for US$ 2.6 billion will be due following the elections.
That is why the BCRA reserves are so important, not only to meet the payment with the international organization but also to have greater firepower to intervene in the exchange market and contain exchange rates.
At this point, it got some air thanks to the expansion of the Chinese swap.
The highest monetary authority sold US$ 140 million in the MULC this week, a figure that rises to US$ 875 million so far this month and US$ 2.6 billion so far this year.
Thus, gross reserves stood at US$ 24,544 million and, according to estimates by the consulting firm Ecolatina, net international reserves remained in negative territory of US$ 7,700 million, which might rise to US$ 10,000 million with the planned payments. to the IMF.
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