Container airline Evergreen (2603-TW), Yang Ming (2609-TW) just announced that the combined revenue in June all paid a record high. After entering the third quarter, it was reported that some airlines will charge GRI fees from the Far East to the United States from August 15. However, Taihua (2636-TW) The revenue in June has hit a low for more than a year, and the SCFI composite index has also hit a low in a year. The peak season effect has not yet been seen, and the freight forwarding industry is unanimously pointing to the weakening of terminal demand. Obviously, even if the shipping industry ushered in the traditional peak season, There are still a lot of noises. We can first observe whether the GRI can be successfully charged in mid-August.
Evergreen and Yang Ming both set a new record for their revenue in June, which exceeded market expectations under the trend of falling freight rates in the second quarter, reflecting that the long-haul contract price doubled this year has been effective since May. Revenue momentum.
Not only that, it has recently been reported that some shipping companies have notified customers that they will increase the GRI of the Far East route on August 15. The market has interpreted this, and the European and American markets still have certain demand momentum for shipping.
However, there is a lot of noise in the market. First, Taihua’s consolidated revenue in June was 2.363 billion yuan, down 19.95% monthly and 24.93% year-on-year, hitting a monthly low since May last year. In this regard, Taihua bluntly stated that container freight rates are not as good as The rise is expected to reflect high inflationary pressures in the United States, which has kept retail inventories high.
Not only did Taihua’s revenue begin to reflect weakening terminal demand, but China-Philippines Bank (5609-TW) does not deny that the current shipping market conditions are not as good as expected.
Swift (2643-TW) mentioned that it is obvious that many customers are affected by inflation, “shipping has become less urgent, and the peak season effect has not been felt”. Therefore, shipping companies will adjust flights to ease the decline in freight rates, but in the second half of the year It is generally better than the first half of the year, and subsequent changes in freight rates remain to be seen.
It is understood that before adding GRI, airlines must notify the US Federal Maritime Commission in advance (FMC) application is a common and routine procedure during the peak season in the past. “Even if you know that the increase will not be successful, you should do this action.” Because of the effect of the announcement, it does not mean that the time will be increased or the full amount of GRI will be charged. It still depends on the market supply and demand structure at that time.
Some cargo operators also revealed that in fact, some airlines also applied for GRI on July 15, but due to the current high terminal inventory, the peak season demand is not as expected, it seems that it will not be able to rise now, and I am afraid that even the spot freight price will fall.
Observing the latest freight rate trend, the latest SCFI composite index (Shanghai Export Container Freight Index) released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange showed 4 consecutive declines, and the decline point continued to expand to 4143.87 points, hitting a new low since late July last year.
Among them, the latest quotations of the three major long-haul routes continued to decline. The US east route hit a new low since early July last year, the European route continued to hit the low point since late May last year, and the weekly decline in the US west route also expanded to 2.97%, and hit a record high in December last year. A new low since the beginning of the month.
On the whole, following entering the peak shipping season, the long and short offensive and defensive battles on the news surface are still fierce. However, the downward trend of freight rates is an indisputable fact. In the middle of the third season, there was a wave of buying goods in Europe and the United States before the fourth season, which made GRI successfully increase the collection.
