Russia’s economic weakness
A climate of fear has therefore settled in the West, following the various Russian manoeuvres. “However, note Bernard Adam“Russia is not only weaker militarily once morest the West, but its economy also shows significant weaknesses. This should logically calm the concerns of Westerners“, he nuances.
In fact, currently, in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of all the countries in the world, the United States represents 25% of this total, the European Union 18% and China 17.4%. Russia is at 1.75%, ie at a level ten times lower than the European Union or China. By way of comparison, Germany is at 4.54%, the United Kingdom at 3.26% and France at 3.11%.
Other figures show that the Russian economy is in full disarray. From 2014, Russia experienced a significant slowdown in its economic growth. But 2014 is the year in which Russia annexed Crimea and decided to support pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. There followed a series of economic sanctions decided by the European Union and the United States. And at the same time, oil prices began to fall.
“Russia is a rentier economy, with its gas, oil and mining resources“, adds Nicolas Tenzer. “But it is a sacrificed economy, because it has not benefited from deep development“.
“There is therefore a structural weakness“, adds Bernard Adam.
Eventually, Russia is doomed to disappear as a great power.
Thus, the Russian population has continued to become poorer. Infrastructure and public services have fallen into disrepair. The erosion of purchasing power, added to the very unpopular pension reform, which came into force in 2019 (raising the start of retirement age from 55 to 60 for women and from 60 to 65 for men) caused Vladimir Putin’s popularity to plummet.
“Eventually, Russia is doomed to disappear as a great power.” lance Nicolas Tenzer“all the statistics leave no doubt”.
Is it to divert attention from this internal crisis that Vladimir Putin is waging this war? “It was true in 2014″, Nicholas Tenzer analysis. “The annexation of Crimea and the first incursions into the Donbass undoubtedly had a certain success with part of Russian opinion. Today, I am not sure that is the case. Most Russians don’t want an external war“.
Relatively low Russian military spending
Russia no longer has the military means that the USSR had, “which should logically reassure Westerners“, analyzes Bernard Adam. The figures of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) are enlightening in this regard.
In 1989, the year of the fall of the Berlin wall, the military expenditure of the USSR amounted to 260 billion dollars, once morest 663 billion for the United States, representing respectively 18% and 46% of military expenditure world.
Therefollowing, Russian military spending experienced a steady decline, reaching its lowest level in 1998. It was Vladimir Putin, who became President of Russia in 2000, who boosted Russian military spending, reaching a peak in 2016, with 80 billion dollars, to decrease over the following four years and stand at 66.8 billion in 2020, once morest 766 billion for the United States, i.e. respectively 3.4% and 39% of world military expenditure.
By comparison, the entire military budgets of Western European countries in 2020 amounted to $300 billion, or 15% of global military spending, which is 4.5 times more than Russia’s military budget.
