2023-06-30 01:04:00
Our reporter Meng Ke
On June 29, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data showing that from January to May, the total social logistics in the country was 129.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% at comparable prices. In May, the growth rate was 4.8%, which was 1.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.
Meng Yuan, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that in May, the overall national economic operation continued to recover, but the rebound in market demand has entered an adjustment period, and the growth rate of production activities in some industries has slowed down. Demand growth has declined from the previous month. However, the scale of the logistics market is still growing, the industry is still in the expansion range, enterprises are making solid progress in reducing costs and increasing efficiency, intelligent empowerment and blessing the industry’s ability to adapt and adjust is enhanced, and the pace of logistics transformation and upgrading is steady.
Logistics demand maintains a steady recovery trend
During the year, logistics demand experienced two stages of “rapid recovery-stabilization and correction”, but the cumulative growth rate still maintained a steady recovery trend, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from January to April.
“Currently, the total amount of social logistics has not yet returned to the normal growth level. At the same time, the structural differentiation among various fields is also relatively obvious, and the basis for recovery needs to be further consolidated.” Meng Yuan analyzed.
From the perspective of the total social logistics structure, the demand for industrial logistics has maintained a steady growth, and its contribution to the growth of the total social logistics has remained relatively stable at around 70%. The growth rate has accelerated, and the leading role is prominent.
The growth rate of industrial product logistics is steady and slowing down. Data show that from January to May, the total volume of industrial product logistics increased by 3.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was basically the same as that from January to April. From the perspective of the current month, the growth rate in May was 3.5%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month.
In Meng Yuan’s view, there are still fluctuations in the recovery of industrial product logistics demand, and short-term problems such as weak growth momentum and insufficient demand are still faced. In terms of industries, the growth rate of total logistics in the manufacturing sector has accelerated, while basic energy sectors such as mining have continued to decline.
The growth rate of import logistics picked up. From January to May, the total import logistics volume increased by 11.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points higher than that from January to April. In May, the growth rate was 14.1%, a substantial increase of 4.7 percentage points. Meng Yuan said that with the continued efforts to stabilize the economy and the entry into force of some trade agreements, it has supported the rebound in the flow of imported logistics.
The pulling effect of units and residents’ logistics has been improved. From January to May, the total logistics volume of units and residents increased by 10.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.9 percentage points higher than that from January to April.
Meng Yuan said that with the expansion of consumption scenarios, the demand for consumer logistics in multiple fields has achieved rapid growth. In particular, the demand for logistics such as food delivery and instant intra-city delivery has reached a staged peak along with factors such as the May Day holiday. The data of some key enterprises shows that the growth rate of business orders exceeds 40%. The integration of online and offline logistics needs has been achieved, and the development of new formats and models such as e-commerce logistics and instant delivery has accelerated.
The supply of logistics services is relatively sufficient
From January to May, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 5.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. Since the beginning of this year, the scale of the professional logistics market has continued to increase, and the supply of logistics services is relatively sufficient.
In Meng Yuan’s view, there are many bright spots in logistics operations in different subdivisions. On the one hand, e-commerce and express logistics are working together, and the industry is operating in a high boom. From the perspective of e-commerce logistics index, the total business volume index of e-commerce logistics in May was 120.4 points, an increase of 1.5 points from the previous month, and it has continued to rise for many months this year. On the other hand, the stable operation of warehousing and logistics business helps to improve the efficiency of industrial turnover. In May, the average number of inventory turnover in China’s storage index increased, and the inventory index at the end of the period fell, indicating that the efficiency of warehousing logistics and industrial adaptation has improved, and the stable operation of industry business has helped the supply chain turnover cycle to be smooth. The warehousing logistics business volume index in May remained at 51.3%. good level.
Since the beginning of this year, macro and logistics policies have worked together, and the effects of tax cuts, cost reductions, and corporate bailouts have continued to emerge, boosting logistics demand while improving the business environment for logistics companies. In the first five months of this year, multiple departments issued policies and measures to stimulate the vitality of market players and promote high-quality industrial development. Shanghai, Guangdong, and Hubei issued detailed implementation rules to further strengthen financial support for transportation companies and small and medium-sized logistics companies, and expand refinancing. Support range.
Judging from the key survey data, the results are gradually showing: the capital turnover of key logistics enterprises is accelerating, and the operating cost control is relatively effective. At the end of May, the average payback period of accounts receivable of key enterprises decreased by 4 days year-on-year; from January to May, the cost per 100 yuan of operating income of key enterprises was 95 yuan, and the cost level dropped slightly from January to April. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments jointly issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in Key Cost Reduction Work in 2023”, focusing on improving the modern logistics system, the extension of multiple tax reductions and exemptions for logistics, and the adjustment of transportation structure. The accuracy of preferential tax policies, Pertinence will be further enhanced, and the logistics operating environment is expected to be further improved.
“On the whole, the current logistics operation is still facing certain pressure, the problem of insufficient demand still exists, the imbalance between supply and demand in various industries and segments has intensified, the logistics charges of small and micro logistics enterprises continue to fall, and there are still many operating difficulties. Although the main operating indicators such as income and profit have improved, they have not yet returned to normal levels. The pressure of industry competition has generally increased. Yuan believes that, but we must also see that my country’s logistics companies are more resilient and their ability to adapt to changes in demand is gradually improving. As the economic operation gradually returns to the normal track, the logistics operation is expected to improve simultaneously, and the total social logistics in the first half of the year may achieve a growth of regarding 4.5%.
[Responsible editor: Cao Jing]
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